Not admitting a problem makes it worse. So when government spokesmen claim being “alive to economic challenges”, one cannot be faulted for foregoing any expectations that ambitious budget projections might have triggered. For, considering on-ground reality, the optimism immediately following Dr Sheikh’s budget speech can no longer be justified.
Like many, we genuinely believed that ambitious growth and revenue expectations implied a thorough FBR overhaul coupled incorporation of serious value addition in exports. And after Dr Sheikh’s enlightening lecture on the benefits of privatisation immediately preceding the budget – at our traditional Pre-Budget Seminar – we expected this fiscal year to finally record unprecedented progress on PSE privatisation. These measures are essential to ease the government’s fiscal burden. Both exports and tax reforms are necessary to improve national earning, and that will not materialise absent PSE privatisation, since they bleed the national exchequer of billions every year. That the claims followed the 18th amendment, there were also hopes of the centre and provinces finally working like a well oiled machine, leaving the days of fiscal deficits and financial leakages blissfully behind. Alas, that was not to be.
Instead, neither tax reforms nor a quantum jump in exports have materialised. Exports are actually sinking as the international market commodity boom that bid up cotton prices last year has crashed. Provincial authorities have been exposed as incapable of generating revenue or handling the additional responsibility that has come their way. The result has been increased uncertainty and inefficiency. If the government were indeed “alive to economic challenges”, we would have seen steps to increase output, improve earning, and stop leakages. Half the fiscal is already behind us, with not much time to show results considering obvious lags between policy implementation and results.
It’s safe to say budget targets will not be met. And considering the next presentation will be the last one before the next general election, it is difficult to justify official satisfaction with the economic situation. Rather than forward empty boasts, those in charge are advised to put some sense in national earning before it is too late.
