Pakistan’s trade concession at the EU seems an inherent non-starter. Suddenly it seems all the effort behind cajoling New Delhi into a more compromising posture, even throwing in the MFN concession for good measure, apparently risks going waste. Whether or not there have been behind-the-scenes discussions between Delhi and Dhaka, especially since the deal in no way impedes upon the latter’s trade position, is better taken up elsewhere in the press. But it bears noting that the EU gambit is time bound, and the more our neighbours delay progress, the more Pakistan loses out, with India perhaps the biggest winner, MFN and all.
The pitfalls on the trade road ought to have taught some valuable lessons to our policymakers. Far from the ‘win-win’ euphoria of the Sharma-Fahim summit, we seem to have played into India’s hands yet again. This ‘one step forward, two steps back’ position is symptomatic of our relations with India of late. Ever since the Musharraf days, when CBMs were all the rage, there was always reluctance on India’s side to reciprocate. Even the coveted MFN status, which India accorded Pakistan way back in ’96, was blunted by Delhi’s carefully crafted non-tariff barriers.
As regards trade, we will move away from puerile concerns once our export basket is no longer miniscule. We continue to rely on agriculture and related industry to comprise the bulk of our revenue base. As the world moves into production and value addition, we are already left far behind in the overall trade narrative. Instead of falling on time-barred concessions, we must become proactive in enhancing export earnings. And the way to that is through increased production and manufacturing. And for that, the most pressing concern is energy shortfall, which is already largely responsible for underutilisation of capacity. Once we are self-sufficient, India and Bangladesh will be unable to exert downward pressure on our trade earnings.
