Sometimes called as the sopranos of Afghanistan, the dreaded haqqani network is either a placebo, in the hands of high and mighty or a leverage nobody wants to let go off.
Jeffrey Dressler , a renowned research analyst at ISW who conducted a research on the behest of Gen David Petraus ( Afghanistan report no 9, A strategic threat ) concludes in his report, “The Haqqani network is well-poised to present a grave challenge to the stability of the Afghan state however, it has not been the target of a major coalition offensive till date.
The predicament of US-led coalition forces stems from the perceptual dissonance of who to blame quagmire, with apparently no definitive strategy in place. During a raid on Kabul on April 15, 2012, President Hamid Karazai blamed NATO forces for their intelligence failure. Gen Martin E Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, while commenting on the incident said, “Though the evidence leads us to believe that the Haqqani network was involved in this, it doesn’t lead back into Pakistan at this time.”
Ground realities in Afghanistan, presupposes a host of tangibles, highlighted by many, as the prima fascia in dealing with them. Haqqanis have expanded their operational presence beyond Loya Paktia to Logar, Wardak, Nangarhar, Kapisa, Laghman and a selection of Afghanistan’s Northern provinces.
Their involvement with local insurgent groups to include IMU and others has been substantiated and well-documented and has paved way for more organised operations.
Quintessentially, Haqqanis, or any other group can hardly operate in Afghanistan, without having safe havens in the host country. The enigma of cross-border support would be a futile hypothesis, when correlated with home grown safe heavens, availability of sophisticated weapons, and ironically time taken by US to stigmatise Haqqanis as FTO.
After the April 15, 2012 raid on Kabul, Fatima Aziz, a lawmaker from Kudzu and a member of the internal security committee said “There is a big question mark “How did they manage to bring all these weapons and all this ammunition and rockets and keep it here in the vicinity of the sensitive installation of Afghan government and international community?” (Afghan Assaults Signal Evolution of a Militant Foe, NYT, Eric Schmitt and Alissa J. Rubin)
What lies beneath this murky shades of grey, can anybody guess, but given the potential/ history Haqqanis have, which is essentially marred with violence and bloodshed, it would be most practical to start an in-house cleansing , with a targeted operation against supply routes , safe heavens, and use of drones to have surgical strikes on their operational bases.
The US, at present, is facing many dilemmas, whilst rendering Haqqanis as FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organisation). US treasury department had already rendered Sirajuddin, Jalaluddin and Badruddin Haqqani as terrorists, however the reluctance on declaring the whole group as terrorist , was answered by Brian Fishman, Counterterrorism Research Fellow at the New America Foundation almost a year back. Designating the Haqqani network as an FTO, the US is closing the door on reconciliation with them, as it is hoped that the Haqqanis can be reintegrated into the new Afghan government. (The Express Tribune, September 29th, 2011).
Now ,the US president has signed the FTO bill and the secretary of state has to validate it with irrefutable proof of the groups involvement in “endangering the lives of US nationals and US security” as per article 219 of the immigration and security act, within 30 days. The implications again would be murky and tangled.
The legal implications on fight against terrorism, the future of GLOCs and creation of a broad based government in Afghanistan will have their share of redressel. The blanket immunity for the group, over the years would fall and a pro-active action by the US, especially within Afghanistan would be on the cards. The scarlet thread of this bride, of many, is likely to fall, whilst, for good is anybody’s guess.
