A country’s population if well educated, trained and skilled, constitutes a valuable asset. On the contrary, largely uneducated and unskilled overpopulation is an unbearable liability, as is the case in Pakistan. It falls far beyond its capacity to sustain it. Government as usual appears to be least concerned. However, its growing crippling impact on daily life of the people has been highlighted by some demography experts.
Rich-poor disparity may be but a minor contributory factor but not the sole cause. Nor removal of this disparity, though much needed, could be a pre-condition for stabilising population. It may take generations to fill rich-poor gap. Population growth is not a trivial matter for Pakistan and the government “must tackle it urgently.” Pakistan is a developing country without sizable mineral deposits. Its population sustainability primarily depends upon its arable land and water resources. Land is not a limiting factor (yet). But its water resources are already far short of demand for irrigation to grow food and fibre.
Prior to introduction of year round irrigation, famines often used to devastate parts of Punjab and Sindh killing thousands of people and more animals. Perennial irrigation began with the opening of Bari Canal passing through the city of Lahore in 1859. By the advent of 21st century Indus Irrigation System evolved into the world’s largest. It comprised 60,000 kms of canals irrigating 44 million acres of crop land. The region was bread basket of the country. Alas no more! The basket is empty and the mouths to feed aplenty. Why?
Pakistan lost its three rivers viz Sutlej, Beas and the Ravi to India under the Indus Waters Treaty 1960. River flows declined due to siltation of Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs. No large storage dam was built since Tarbela 36 years ago. On the other hand, water demand arose due to fast growing population. Water availability fell 30-40 percent short of demand. Future outlook was but bleak.
By the time Pakistan celebrates its first centenary, it would be rich in people but extremely poor in water, food and power resources. What to speak of the year 2050 even water scenario in 2025 looks extremely disconcerting. Pakistan’s water kitty may not hold enough to cater to full requirements of projected 221 million people, their children, grand children and off-springs by the year 2025 and beyond. Stated otherwise with dwindling river supplies, if fast growing overpopulation rise was not stemmed water shedding may be inevitable. It might result in severe food shedding. It may threaten the very survival of Pakistan. A Malthusian spectacle, maybe.
Stabilisation of population is not a cut and carve activity with instant results. It calls for top priority measures for demand management commensurate with resources by effective population control and maximum conservation of surplus water and its optimum productive utilisation. It is a long-term process to change human attitudes conditioned by socio-religious orientation and traditions of a mostly illiterate and largely rural populace. Nonetheless, people need to be made aware of the looming debilitating impact of water, food, and power crisis.
A national campaign for effective population control would need to be urgently launched with active participation of the people, particularly religious elite. It is to be pursued on a war footing. Unless and until growing surge of overpopulation is not stemmed, water shedding and food shedding would be inevitable. A red signal for the rulers to wake up and save the country from being drowned by the surging flood of overpopulation.
BASHIR AHMED MALIK
Lahore
