Provided the prime minister’s inauguration of the Diamer-Bhasha dam is not a repeat performance of previous stalled attempts to get the ball rolling on the country’s largest multi-purpose reservoir and hydel power generation unit, it will mark a crucial turning point for the mismanaged power sector. Predominantly agrarian and officially ‘highly water stressed’, Pakistan’s economy faces imminent collapse failing immediate government intervention to address chronic structural problems.
As we have noted, deepening water scarcity is snowballing into a national economic emergency. That the country’s irrigated area has increased a little under 20 per cent over the last two decades, yet water shortage has consistently cut yields in the most significant crops – cotton, wheat, rice, sugarcane – is proof enough of unforgivable ineffectiveness of the official machinery. The negative yield trend is indicative of low official priority for both exports and subsistence, since principal revenue generation stems from the crucial agri-industry. In simple terms, rapidly increasing population and decreasing water availability has not been factored in by decision makers. But with the economy now near breakdown, relevant ministries will have to devise means of jumping ahead of the curve, or declining yields will put added pressure on already strained urban centres, upsetting an already fragile rural-urban population mix.
It bears noting that a wave of positive news has caused optimism of late, even if some measures should have been initiated immediately after the budget instead of one quarter into the new fiscal. The central bank’s interest rate incentive for private sector expansion, proactive government posturing to stimulate foreign trade and investment, among others, are right steps for a quantum jump in GDP growth necessary to snap out of stagflation. Yet chronic power shortage, made worse by water scarcity, will compromise any efforts aimed at enhancing productivity or agri output.
The government is reminded that economic revival cannot be pursued in isolation. The push for growth must accommodate all crucial players, which mandates overcoming infrastructural inadequacies prior to initiating landmark projects.
Lets hope for the best, but ground realities are different, as the Diamer Basha ground breaking news flashes in the national media, one wonders how it is possible that the Karakorum Highway is in a pathetic condition, the road between Thakot to Chilas is in the worse condition, small trucks take 20 hours to reach from Besham to Thor nala ( Dam site) how can you transport heavy machinery from Havalian to Basha , before that we need to built a road for 22 wheeler trucks( to carry machinery) even if FWO( frontier works Organization) start repair work on Karakorum Highway it will take 4 to5 to make this possible to transport heavy Machinery, Or if they give it to a Private contractor it will take may be more then 10 years to do the Job if we remember it took 2 months to open KKH last year where only 2 bridges were broken what to talk about the 150 KM stretch from Thakot to Thor Nala for widening it for bigger truck.
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