The postponement of Russian president’s visit to Pakistan is a bad news for all those who considered this visit as a major driver in finding a regional solution to the Afghan problem. This visit along with the trilateral meeting between Pakistan, Russia and Afghanistan was being seen as an important ‘game changer event’ in the context of the ‘new great game’ being played by various internal and external stake holders in Afghanistan.
For retaining ground troops in Afghanistan in a post 2014 scenario the US interest is focused on seeking and securing Soviet-era military bases in Afghanistan. US has also not disclosed or revealed the likely number of troops it is to leave behind after the troops withdrawal in 2014. The uncertain and unpredictable political situation in Afghanistan may necessitate the presence of a far greater number of foreign troops then what the US plans and the world perceive. Yet whatever be the number of troops the transit routes that will ferry the supplies for these troops will be under the control of Russia or Pakistan. This means a lot to US and any efforts on part of Russia and Pakistan to coordinate their approach and push forward any alternative regional security plans will be viewed with suspicion by US which will consider its interests being challenged.
Russia is perceived to lead a regional strategy (an alternative strategy) which includes developing comprehensive partnerships with the neighboring states of Afghanistan as well as the Central Asian States in preparation of the post-2014 scenario in Afghanistan. Already Russia and Tajikistan have agreed on the terms of the continued presence of Russia’s 201 Motorized Division for another 30-year period in Tajikistan. US is also hoping to secure basing facilities in Tajikistan. To do this US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is due to visit Dushanbe in the third week of October. A visit also by Putin to Dushanbe in the month of October is an indicator of the importance the world powers are now associating to the neighboring countries of Afghanistan as the date of drawdown of foreign troops from Afghanistan nears.
Uzbekistan is the other valuable stake holder in the regional solution which has become an important logistics hub for International Security Forces-Afghanistan (ISAF). Seventy-five percent of all supplies for ISAF transported by ground now cross the Uzbek border. If in future there ever is a shutdown of a supply route from Pakistan the significance of Uzbekistan as a substitute to sustain any foreign troops being kept in the bases in Afghanistan cannot be overruled.
Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan was being seen as the indicator of the emerging geopolitical reality that Russia and Pakistan have finally realized that they have a commonality of interests in the post-2014 Afghanistan. Clearly, the postponement of Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan is a great setback for all those who wanted to see Russia leading the regional solution of Afghan problem. This unfortunately has now been put to hold. It is hoped that the visit will eventually take place to show besides anything else that Russia and Pakistan are eager to put behind them their past indifference toward each other and are showing interest in jointly approaching the issues of terrorism and regional security.
It is also hoped that army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, will visit Russia as scheduled this month at the invitation of the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General Nikolai Makarov. His visit will go a long way in communicating to the world that Russia and Pakistan are getting close to military-to-military cooperation. Eventually Russia and Pakistan have to reach out to each other because in this lies not only the mutual benefit that the two countries will draw but also the greater benefit of exploring peace and stability as joint stakeholders.
