Ground realities remain the same despite the high profile discussions and meetings. As the US troop withdrawal edges closer, the success of the US/Nato security forces too sees a considerable reversal as the Taliban have maintained their major strongholds especially the Kunar and Nuristan regions where they operate without any fear at all. This US failure has had and continues to have serious repercussions for Pakistan as the TTP draws its strength from the Afghan Taliban enjoying great operational space across the border.
Already suffering from economic degradation, Pakistan has approached international isolation that may further add to its list of worries. This weakens Pakistan’s position to a considerable degree which surely has a negative impact upon the war outcome. Instead, a strong Pakistan being supported by its allies and regional neighbours would have enhanced the security situation in the entire South Asian region.
Episodes such the OBL raid if viewed within the larger framework of the war against terrorism while keeping in mind the primary objectives of the war, have had almost no change in the state and potency of the insurgency whatsoever. It has a more symbolic effect that serves as a feather in the US cap while providing a valid excuse to the American for Pakistan bashing. The negative fallout of the unilateralism exhibited by the US is evident from the fact that the relations between Pakistan and the US has reached rock bottom.
Despite all this, both the US and Afghanistan realize, however, that Pakistan has always had to play a critical role in Afghanistan whether it’s in eliminating terrorism from the region; or launching military offensives against the militants; or aiding in the reconciliation process; or to help the US withdraw its troop from Afghanistan.
The US is also well aware of the fact that Afghanistan could very easily drift into anarchy and civil war after the US/Nato troops pull out and the Afghan army takes the security in its juvenile hands, thus requiring assurance from regional neighbours to commit themselves in maintaining peace in Afghanistan. Which just shows that we may be passing through a difficult time, but the ultimate test is yet to come after the 2014 troop drawdown. Is Pakistan ready for it? What has the government done to safeguard itself against such an eventuality? Isn’t it time to think a little further than the present?
DR NIDA SHAMI
Ontario, Canada
