The government has raised petrol prices by up to 13 percent in response to a “sharp increase” in global oil prices barely a month after it was forced to reduce another planned hike. This revision in prices was necessitated due to sharp increase in the Arab Gulf petroleum product prices during the month of March.
The petrol prices have shown a predictable rise in the recent past, but the amount with which they will rise is unpredictable. With all sorts of political uncertainties and a crumbling economy, the prices of petrol in Pakistan is likely to increase by a greater percentage than the international market.
Petrol price internationally in February 2008 peaked at $103.05 per barrel while the price in July reached about $147.02 per barrel.
This shows an increase of 42.67 percent. In the same interval, Pakistans petrol prices per liter have jumped up from Rs 53.70 to Rs 86.66 which is a rise of 61.38 percent and with no end to political crises and rising international petrol prices in sight, the effect on local petrol prices can well be imagined.
According to FuturePundit the petrol price in 2012 is predicted at $225 per barrel. The increase is a whopping 118.34 percent. The Pakistani economy cannot sustain this easily and the price hike in Pakistan can be estimated at 170.22 percent using the same proportion of increase as today.
The government continues to provide some subsidy as it does today. The petrol prices in Pakistan in 2012 will be Rs.145.11 per liter.
My guesses are a price higher than this calculation because of the war-like situation in tribal areas and the political situation which is still worsening (theres more to it!). It will probably be around Rs160-170 per liter.
SANA SULTAN
Faisalabad
