Last week was one of double triumph of sorts for the MQM. First, it had the scalp of its nemesis, the PPPs belligerent Sindh home minister Zulfiqar Mirza last Friday. And two days later topped it up in the heart of Punjab, at Lahore, in its third foray in staging a show that it could with some measure of confidence call a success. Whether it was or not, we shall see.
Sending Mirza on leave was a euphemism for a sacking sought by the MQM, with the PPP obliging to keep the coalition out of more turbulence than it could afford at the moment. The plain-talking Mirza though would not fade away quietly. He still fired his oft-repeated salvos with the same gusto, accusing the MQM of resorting to extortion and target killing, even alluding that a recent high profile murder of a TV channels reporter was carried out by its hitmen.
Mirzas harangue may have sounded even more discordant now to a party that in normal times is known for not brooking any criticism from any quarter, even if it is couched in tones muted. This because MQMs Lahore expedition was welcomed by a cacophony of noise from many a political quarter, with the PML(Q) taking the lead. The PML(N) remaining aloof and apparently indifferent was the only predictable exception.
Imran Khan and his PTI too seemed to be cosying up with the MQM and, at one point, its delegations presence was said to be likely. But, perhaps given the recent history between the two, the former either developed cold feet or decided that acting coy was the best policy. Still the fact that Imran had warmed up to the fascists was quite obvious from his telephone call to Altaf Bhai.
Opportunism apparently is not the exclusive preserve of one set of politicians.
Money, it is said in the political circles, is no object for the MQM assumed to be by far the richest party of the country. The Lahore meeting indeed was a marvel of meticulous organisation, but with coercion not a part of the equation as it is in Karachi, copious amounts of cash was used with gay abandon to fill up the arena.
Yet it was only a gathering of about 10,000 on the outside and not a sea of humanity as the MQM so buoyantly claimed. That most of the crowd was either flown in from the MQMs ethnic bastions in the south, Karachi and Hyderabad, or rented from the southern Punjab was mentioned by most uninvolved reporters. And the unerring giveaway was the registration numbers of the vehicles that were used to ferry the people to the football ground.
The big question is whether the MQM will be able to achieve anything out of this freshest of exercises to spread its wings to other parts of the country. Its previous ventures to find a foothold in the Azad Kashmir and Gilgit and Baltistan assemblies met a rather tepid response. It did win a seat or two in G&B and before that in the AK assembly but the latter were on the Kashmiri seats from the constituencies based in Karachi, and reports of brutal rigging and ballot-box stuffing were rife.
In terms of success at the next hustings, much similar to 2007, when it opened offices at most cities big and small, the MQMs latest incursion in Punjab is not likely to get it much of a yield. Then, with Musharraf in his twilight, once the killings on the Karachi roadside targeted the Punjabis, those offices bore the brunt of retaliation and all the MQMs money couldnt keep them from closing with the same alacrity that rats display while ditching a sinking ship.
Is it going to be any different this time round in the Punjab? Highly unlikely, for the MQM does not have a single constituency national or provincial where its ethnic lure could win it votes. Howsoever much it may like to push its three credentials middle class, moderate and mainstream when once overwhelmingly faithful voters in its own citadel have turned into doubters in big numbers (or why would MQM need to use increasing levels of intimidation and brutality in every next election in Karachi), it is not likely to win public acclaim elsewhere in the country. (And this high-jacking of adult franchise has not been happening in some peripheral outpost or in a lawless hinterland but in full public view in the most cosmopolitan, most urbane of our urban centres.)
Another flaw is the continued caricatured representation of the Punjabi politician as feudal lord and jagirdar in the MQM commentariats parlance. The real world is not a PTV play. This is 2011, and there has been a sea change. The presence of the middle class (liberally defined) now in the Punjabi legislature is significantly large. The rural capitalist class and the relatively smaller agriculturists too have been taking the bigwigs head on and have been, with enough party support, defeating many of them. So the MQMs vow of bringing the gift of middle class politics to the Punjab is not going to wash, for the Punjab already has its own slew of middle class representatives.
In the circumstances, Altaf Hussains speech from the long distance, despite its lilting cadences and promises of revolution and the moon through the ballot to the Punjabis, may very well fall on unresponsive ears.
The writer is Sports and Magazines Editor, Pakistan Today.
