In Pakistan-India context, the equation rests at 100 to 150 nuclear warheads of mixed nature. Both are in state of stalemating each other as far as the use is concerned, thereby placing an extremely capable deterrence against each other. Grounds other than nuclear are not so equal playing fields.
India, with its huge defence budget and almost negligible operational liabilities as compared to Pakistan, is pursuing a massive modernisation and rearming programme with force multipliers and technology enablers. This pace, if continued, will even change the equation of nuclear deterrence as the excellence in delivery, sensing and interceptions systems will grant a nuclear edge to India. The countervailing and even counter force targets will become difficult to achieve and the first or second strike capability will reduce the level of nuclear deterrence for Pakistan.
In the areas of astrophysics and controlling the space, India is moving far ahead with a gigantic programme of research and development. Indian space agency has modelled its programme to suit the defence and security requirement that is how only they can get the programme approved from a jingoistic establishment.
In the area of biological and chemical warfare, Indian ambitions are again a matter of great concern. Recently, WikiLeaks highlighted the threat of Indian biological weapons going into the hands of miscreants and terrorists. To round up, the Indian blue water Navy is getting bluer with every passing day by pursuing an ambitions modernisation programme. All these indicators indicate one thing that the range, intent, positioning and development sequence of all Indian weapons tell that these are Pakistan and China specific. The statement of Indian Army Chief calling both the countries as irritants vindicates the same.
The two issues between India and Pakistan that can be powder-keg to start any conflict are the Kashmir issue and the water dispute. With every passing day these issues, if unresolved, are becoming more complicated. The upcoming complications between India and Pakistan are not due to the burden of history, it is more likely due to the enigma of their future. India would like to ensure the food security for its future generations. For that it requires huge water resources. It also requires a permanent presence amongst the highest mountain ranges of the world due to coming upheavals in environment and weather system and more so due to strategic location of Kashmir to overboard the territories of China, Central Asia and Pakistan.
The delay in solving these issues is consolidating the individual stance of both the countries, thereby, removing the element of flexibility and reconciliation from any future negotiation efforts. The ever increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan further complicates the issue. It seems that the region will remain in the arc of instability for decades to come. It is only mutual realisation of the concept of sharing and caring which can bring a positive change, otherwise the region will remain as a museum of history for the West to see and prejudge different ages of human evolution from Stone Age to Space Age.
ABID LATIF SINDHU
Gujranwala
