Negotiating with the tides of time
Although it appears that there’s nothing Saudi Arabia could do that the world wouldn’t take in its stride, the western voters’ rising impatience with the Kingdom’s policies could translate into a costly diplomatic fallout.
Immovable, against all odds
Every month, a fresh wave of anti-Saud sentiment sweeps across the globe in the aftermath of a beheading, crucifixion, stampede, or a crisis involving migrant workers. A toothless petition to prevent the Kingdom from lashing one convict or another is perpetually in circulation on social media. Calls from international human rights organisations pertaining to the Kingdom’s alarmingly high execution rate and treatment of political prisoners like Ali Mohammed al-Nimr, have largely been ignored.
Following the tragedy at Mina, the general sentiment among Pakistanis is that ‘accidents happen’, and that the Saudi government may not be held accountable for them; often proceeding to blame the victims themselves for their lack of discipline. This flies in the face of western modes of operation, where you may not burn your tongue on a piping hot cup of coffee without someone getting sued for not making adequate arrangements to prevent the accident.
Earlier this year during his visit to Riyadh, President Obama was chided for his silence on Raif Badawi, the secular activist sentenced to 1,000 lashes
Tweets, status updates and petitions mean little for a regime that rules by royal blood, and not votes. But in the democratic western states, restless constituents are revisiting their countries’ relations with the kingdom, and examining how they help enable or restrain the House of Saud.
The dilemma of western allies
In a painful interview on Channel 4, the world witnessed David Cameron floundering through a political landmine trying to defend his secret deal with the Saudi regime in 2013, which allowed both the countries to be elected to the UN Human Rights Council.
In the meantime, the Saudi regime has done nothing to ease tensions with Britain, as the latter struggles to justify the political support it renders to KSA. On the contrary, more humiliating interviews may await the prime minister, with news of a 74-year old British citizen jailed in Saudi Arabia for possessing homemade wine, and possibly facing public flogging.
The disillusioned United Kingdom, consequently, has pulled out of a $9 million prison agreement with KSA. It should be noted that the UK is the second-largest foreign investor in Saudi Arabia after the United Sates. While it may be prudent to hold off on any diplomatic prophecies, it would not be unreasonable to speculate if it’s the beginning of the era where an investment in KSA is evaluated not as being frown-provoking, but outright toxic.
Earlier this year during his visit to Riyadh, President Obama was chided for his silence on Raif Badawi, the secular activist sentenced to 1,000 lashes. The American government’s cordial relation with Saudi Arabia is no reflection of the general opinion of American people of the Saudi regime, as all media – social and mainstream – has liberally and unequivocally criticised Saudi Arabia; going as far as to compare its actions to ISIS.
With growing calls for divestment from fossil fuels, and the declining cost of green energy, Saudi Arabia’s most dependable export may not fully insure the west’s loyalty indefinitely.
Impatience in the Muslim world
Among most of the Muslim world, there are questions being raised about the competency of the Saudi government to oversee events like the annual hajj, with the discussion led by long-term opponents like Iran.
Yet Saudi Arabia has stood its ground on nearly all fronts, not only refusing to make any serious effort in mending its image, but also taking active steps to alienate supporters abroad. By arresting Pakistani nationalist Zaid Hamid, for instance, Saudi Arabia laid waste the illusion of Muslim togetherness harboured by conservatives across Pakistan. The very same crowds placing sarcastic quotation marks around “freedom of speech”, ironically rose to defend Zaid Hamid’s stance against the most unlikely of incarcerators.
The treatment of South Asian migrant workers at the hands of Saudi ‘kafeels’ has long been a prickly subject, and pilgrims – even the ones who speak in KSA’s political favour – complain bitterly of their treatment by Saudi officials. The word ‘Saudi’, in the minds of many, invokes an image of sheer decadence and hedonism.
The fallout
While the loyalties of Islamic countries will take far longer to expire, western democracies are likely to bend much sooner under the pressures of its constituents. Disdain of Saudi Arabia unifies both sides of the political spectrum: the left-wing, with its impatience for monarchies with a record of mistreating women and political dissidents; and the right-wing, ever-wary of puritanical Islamist regimes.
If the public’s opinion of Saudi Arabia continues to worsen to a point where political lobbying for it becomes acutely scandalous, western policy-makers would be forced to consider the diminishing returns of an alliance with Saudi Arabia, against the votes it would cost them at home.
KSA resists the interference of other countries in its ‘internal affairs’. Yet ironically, summoned the Czech ambassador to protest the publication of the newly-translated ‘Satanic Verses’, which the ambassador claims is allowed under Czech law
Even as an undemocratic regime that rules unopposed, Saudi Arabia has billions of dollars in revenue nestled in the hands of foreign voters; the ordinary denizens of the internet fuming over the Kingdom meting out punishments that they had forgotten existed in the 21st century, and demanding to know what their respective governments are doing to stop these from happening.
KSA resists the interference of other countries in its ‘internal affairs’. Yet ironically, summoned the Czech ambassador to protest the publication of the newly-translated ‘Satanic Verses’, which the ambassador claims is allowed under Czech law. This, and the Kingdoms hard efforts at exporting its puritanical cultures abroad, indicate that the House of Saud does not believe in its own policy of non-intervention in other country’s internal matters.
Saudi Arabia may see itself as being impervious to the opinions of outsiders, but its foreign investors are not. The Kingdom cannot reasonably expect to exist in a socio-political time-bubble where the only variable is its economic state. It must negotiate with the tides of time, as every other functional nation has done.
