NEWS ANALYSIS – The marriage of convenience of strange bedfellows could not consummate and the three-year “unnatural alliance” between the two pole-apart political rivals finally broke down. The 45-day deadline, which was extended for another 48 hours, expired and the PML-N announced to part ways with the PPP in the Punjab.
It was expected and certain as the PML-N had already started preparing grounds to say “goodbye” to the PPP with Nawaz Sharif publicly taking on the federal government for not showing sincerity to implement the 10-point reforms agenda.
While announcing his party’s decision, Nawaz Sharif, however, transmitted mixed signals. Though he tacitly described Asif Zardari as a cheat, who never honoured any commitment that he made with him, Nawaz Sharif did not suggest even slightly that he would rock the PPP’s boat – we will play our role (as opposition) in the centre and you play your role in the province. The message was unmistakably clear: live and let live.
Having secured the PML-N government in the Punjab with the support of the PML-Q rebels, who formed a separate group in the provincial assembly, Nawaz Sharif appeared comfortable to independently govern the province. Though the defection clause under the 18th Amendment is applicable after the next elections, the PML-N’s decision to welcome the turncoats to the “mother party” under any pretext is negation of the spirit of the Charter of Democracy which too seems to have been buried with the changing scenario and new political alignments shaping up – there is no morality in politics, it’s all about suitability.
Nawaz Sharif presented a charge-sheet against the federal government but he still hoped it would mend its ways in next two years, suggesting that the PML-N would not call for a fresh mandate.
While he did not categorically rule out the possibility of mid-term election which, he said, was not unconstitutional, he shrewdly restricted himself from suggesting that it was a time for the nation to go to polls. It is not that Nawaz Sharif does not want the PPP government to fall. What he appears to be avoiding is that he should not be seen as a part of any conspiracy aimed at removing an elected government before completion of its term.
His assessment is probably that the government will sooner or later fall itself as the internal and external situation is not supportive of an already numbers-weak PPP which is already struggling to keep going with limited choices available to complete its term – the JUI-F has already moved to the opposition benches and the MQM has rejoined the coalition but without any role in the government.
Though Nawaz Sharif tried to remove the label of “friendly opposition” from the face of the PML-N, he did not declare war against the PPP.
The PPP too avoided confrontation and surprisingly launched Raza Rabbani, instead of any of its hawks, to respond to Nawaz Sharif’s press conference. And Raza Rabbani, a reasonably moderate among PPP big mouths, saved the day for his party. The way both sides exercised restraint, it was understood that they had already agreed to call it a day to move independently for contesting next elections against each other.
The chances are that 2011 will be the election year as no political party particularly the PML-N and the power that-be would like the PPP to obtain majority in the Senate in 2012 with the present assemblies in place. Notwithstanding Nawaz Sharif’s tacit assurance to the PPP to complete its term, he may ask for mid-term election as he said the PML-N would monitor the PPP’s performance for a few months and then decide its future political strategy – politics is not an exact science, it is the art of the possible.
