This is with reference to European Union’s decision to impose sanctions on Iranian oil. This after the American President had already barred foreign firms from dealing with Central Bank of Iran (31 Dec) as part of American sanctions on Iranian oil.
If Iran earns 80% of its revenue from oil exports then why can’t it develop nuclear energy to release more oil for export and earn more revenue? What proof does the US have about Iranian plans of diverting nuclear energy towards creation of nuclear weapons? The world learnt that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq; yet the US spent $800 billion and lost 4500 American soldiers’ lives for a war fought on a fallacious premise.
Is imposing sanctions on Iran a costly mistake that the US will commit? Iran can survive US and EU sanctions and still achieve in two years time what the US and Israel dread most: ‘a nuclear weapon’.
It can do this by continuing to export oil to China and India – both being huge markets and both having their own fixed positions about the imposition of sanctions on Iran. India does not want to become part of any sanctions that are not UN-sponsored and China needs cheap oil for its energy requirements.
The only way the US can force the two countries to toe its line is to deny them access to US markets for exports. But the US would not want to lose its access to the huge markets of these countries either which could happen as a result of the aforementioned measure. Chances are that Iran will continue to remain defiant and survive US sanctions and may even escalate its process of achieving nuclear capability specifically in response to imperialist US aggression. Where does this leave Iran and regional security? Will the US and Israel consider carrying out military strikes on Iranian nuclear installations?
‘If the ability of enemy to harm you is related to your ability to defend yourself’ then Iran has shown the world with its military preparedness that it will not submit/capitulate in face of a US-Israel combined military effort as easily as Iraq did.
Besides military preparedness, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza (both under Iranian influence) can pose a substantial threat to Israel. Iran also has insurgent groups in Afghanistan that can hurt American interests in that country.
Considering that one fifth of all oil tankers involved in world trade pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the security of supply route more than the effect of sanctions on Iran may become a matter of concern in the coming days. This being an election year both in Iran and the US, any misadventure by either side to gain public approval may plunge the region yet again into an unwanted conflict. Something that this region and the world can ill afford.
LT COL(Retd)MUHAMMAD ALI EHSAN
Karachi
