The vanguards of democracy in the Asia-Pacific region, the United States, India and Japan have come together for a trilateral strategic consultation and have decided upon holding joint naval exercises this year in forming an entente among the trio of nations. Experts are touting this maneuver as a major reshuffle in the dynamics of the most lucrative zone in the world – as far as the economical ramifications are concerned. The latest strategy is asking for a rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific zone and Indian cooperation as an economic anchor and of course the hub of security provision in and around the fragile Indian Ocean.
This ‘entente’ is an uncanny throwback to the Franco-British-Russian “Triple Entente” of World War I, which was created to counter the German military muscle. Almost a century later, the Germany of the 21st century is China, the muscle being flexed by the Asian giant is economic and the menace being posed is of its wherewithal in the realm of foreign policy. And another thing reminiscent of the early 20th century is the manner in which the three countries are vying to counter the threat of this leviathan of theirs. The aim – like in the case of Germany – is not to contain China; au contraire, the US policy is to utilise economic interdependence and the integration of China into international institutions to put off their hierarchy from hankering after taking the helm of all matters in Asia. Round one of the dialogues has been held in Washington, and the noise being generated from inside the camps is imbued with sanguinity as we approach round two in Tokyo.
The word is that Australia might also be included in this strategic triangle, to make it an ominous quadrilateral, which would be touching all the proverbial corners of the world. However, experts believe that a more probable formulation would be of a parallel Australia-India-US axis, especially considering the fact that the intended four-party coalition talks are seemingly on the brink of nosediving into oblivion.
Nevertheless, the most important façade that the three nations should be considering is that for this trilateral cooperation to bear the desired fruits, some of their respective policies and strategic preferences need to be revisited. Take for example the fact that Tokyo has only established military interoperability with Washington, with New Delhi seemingly nowhere in sight. Japan must also connect with Indian naval forces to further beef up this three layered sandwich. And yes if Indian and the US forces continue along the same lines, which has seen them conduct a multitude of joint ventures in the recent past – the meal would become all the more scrumptious.
Considering the geographical dynamics, another important facet as far as the militaristic scheme of things are concerned is that Japan and China are separated by an ocean and US is no way near perilous proximity; hence that leaves India potentially donning the garb of caution, pondering over the ramifications on the southern half of the volatile Himalayan border. That little devil we call history, also divulges an unceremonious Sino-Indian bond and hence India might want to cover all its bases before it takes a veritable plunge into this strategic triangle. America has ramifications of its own to mull over with the fiscal quagmire that the country finds itself in. And Obama has recently announced plans for a leaner military and more profound dependability regional bondage; so he also has his plate full ahead of a momentous year on the personal and national fronts.
Hence, all the concerned parties should acknowledge their own limitations and those of their partners, before going gung-ho in global matters. The need of the hour for the three countries is to counter the hindrances that lie ahead before the trilateral companionship can evolve into being a seamless bond. Conjuring up flawless military interoperability will be no mean task – especially since there is a void of US-India treaty relationship – and groundbreaking policy making would have to be brought to the fore, if the potential of this tripartite relationship is to be realised.
The writer is Texas A&M University graduate who is currently employed with Telenor in the Products – Commercial Division. He can be reached at [email protected]
