The water bomb

For those of us who feel that the piling up of nuclear arsenal in itself threatens the future of South Asia, are blatantly mistaken. The policy makers, the intermediaries and the stakeholders are all convinced that peace will be sustainable only when the Kashmir issue between Pakistan and India is addressed, however the problem has now escalated beyond merely the Kashmir dispute. According to a World Bank report, water scarcity in South Asia, is expected to reach unprecedented levels in the coming years. It explained that as demand rises, with the 1.5 billion strong population growing almost by 1.7 per cent each year, it is almost like dropping the entire population of North Korea on the region every year.
Add this to the long list of woes of Pakistan that is combating terrorism, radicalisation, political uncertainty, economic crisis, power shortage, fiscal mismanagement, and any other predicament humanly imaginable. As the economies of South Asia, grow every year the growth comes at the cost of feeding the rising demand of food. Industries, require water, agriculture requires water, food requires water, and power generation requires water.
Pakistan’s storage capacity of water presently stands at approximately 9 per cent of average annual flows, compared with the average world capacity of 40 per cent. Add this to the fact that by 2030, Pakistan will be the 5th largest populous country of the world and you find yourself in dire straits. To top it off, India’s construction of Baglihar dam that Pakistan alleges is being built with gated spillways in violation of the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty, will give the neighbouring regional rival greater control over Pakistani waters.
Former water expert of the World Bank, John Briscoe who advises Pakistan on water issues said, “The Baglihar decision allowed a reservoir on a river coming into Pakistan, and now a precedent is set.” The water bomb in Pakistan is ticking with every passing second, as the water reserves are fast depleting. According to estimates, water availability is expected to decrease to 800 cubic meters by 2020, from 5000 cubic meters in 1947.
Intriguingly the per MW cost of electricity produced from the Baglihar project is much higher than the average per MW cost elsewhere in India. Moreover, studies estimate that for the Baglihar dam to produce 900 MW of electricity, it would require 860 cumecs of water, however flows of Chenab reduce considerably in winters, so much so that flow in winters reduces to up to 50 cumecs. Reports indicate that India has built 14 hydropower plants on Chenab and is in the process of building more projects that will eventually enable it to completely block water of the Chenab river for almost a month.
According to a report published by the US Senate in February this year, the cumulative effect of the 33 plus projects of India, at various stages of completion on the rivers that affect this region, ‘could give India the ability to store enough water to limit the supply to Pakistan at crucial moments in the growing season.’
The latest row between the two countries is over the Kishanganga hydropower project, where the complicated design entails India diverting waters of Neelum, some 22 km down a mountain tunnel to turbines, clearly in violation of the IWT. There are almost 5000 dams in India, whereas Pakistan boasts of a figure that barely exceeds 20 dams. As far as India is concerned, in the case of controversial dams, it seems that the arch rival will get away happy in the end, as the international arbitration that took place in Hague permitted Indian design, despite ordering suspension of its construction for certain assessments. Regardless, India will most probably finish the dam before Pakistan constructs the Neelum project downstream.
While many drone about the need for cultural exchange to promote harmony between the neighbouring countries, such harmony cannot be fostered in the presence of an existential threat to the survival of the people of the region. Pakistan’s concerns over water are habitually dismissed in the International media, claiming that these are merely excuses to pick a fight with India, but the water bomb of region has the potential to set the spark for a localised conflict with far reaching repercussions.

The writer is News Editor, Profit. He can be reached at [email protected]