AT PENPOINT
- The meeting saw an advance made on Afghanistan
The most anticipated meeting in Washington for Pakistanis has taken place between US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Imran Khan, and has gone off smoothly, without President Trump offering any of the gratuitous insults to his guest that have become virtually the hallmark of his relations with US allies. The meeting also did not result in any immediate development, though there seems to have been some movement on issues of vital concern to the USA, while at least a nod has been tipped at those of concern to Pakistan.
The pressing concern for Trump was Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s role in helping the USA out of what has for some time been its longest ever war, and which is going to reach its 20th anniversary with the 9/11 anniversary this year. Pakistan is supposed to bring to the negotiating table the Afghan militant groups which have been fighting the USA. It cannot have been forgotten by the Pakistani side that President Trump had tweeted, infamously for Pakistanis, that Pakistan was backing those who were killing US troops. President Trump had used that as an excuse to stop the Coalition Support Fund payments, as well as other US aid, both military and economic.
Trump might try to make India realise that the almost annual war-scare between two nuclear powers is inherently unstable, and must be avoided
That had put Pakistan in a problematic position, where it found itself unable to pay for its imports. Packages from traditional friends like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and China helped, but did not solve the problem, and Pakistan had to turn to the IMF, which came through with a package, important of itself, but also because it meant that Pakistan would be able to borrow from other Bretton Woods institutions like the World Bank. It should be remembered that the Bretton Woods institutions have two purposes; to keep international financial operations stable enough to prevent another crash like that of 1929, and to ensure that countries follow policies that the USA approves of.
What makes Pakistan’s economic problem even more severe under US control is the fact that it is on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list. That means it has got to take a number of steps to ensure that it is not placed on the black list. One of the many consequences of being blacklisted, apart from being barred from the world’s capital markets, will be the cancellation of the IMF package, and thus probably being brought very close to default, if not forced into it. FATF has thus become what amounts to another Bretton Woods institution, in that it exists to force obedience to the USA’s foreign policy. It should not be thought that the War on Terror is solely something the USA is waging, as the European powers and India are also involved in it, and seek to advance national goals within its context. The FATF listing is an example, as India is leading the fight to have Pakistan blacklisted, not because it wants to stop its militants from pursuing a liberation agenda in Kashmir, but to cripple it financially. A financially crippled Pakistan would be unable to acquire the weaponry necessary to compete with India.
The Trump-Imran meeting made the transactional nature of the relationship obvious. If Pakistan helped in the Afghan peace process, it could have US aid restored. It could rely on unspecified but considerable US influence at the IMF and in the FATF.
It is almost worth noting that Pakistan’s military leadership was also there. This is clear evidence of the obvious, that Afghanistan was under discussion. It might be remembered that the COAS and DG ISI are now always there on visits by the PM to Kabul, almost as if to assure the Afghan President that the PM is to be believed. Does the USA need this assurance now?
Apart from Afghanistan, the military leadership are also involved in another area which the meeting addressed, that of India. Here the Pakistani side was treated to one of the famous Trumpian lapses which have given any diplomacy involving him the character of a game of dice. He said that when he met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he had asked him to mediate on Kashmir. The US stand has been that it was willing to mediate if both countries want it to. Pakistan has always said it was agreeable, India has always insisted that any resolution would have to be bilateral. However, because it has never been willing to talk, there has never been any solution. Trump’s remark seemed a breakthrough, but the only reaction from India was a squawk-storm of denials, to the level of the Indian External Affairs Minister denying it in Parliament.
Where did Trump get the idea? Well, he is 73, at an age when arteriosclerosis has well set in, and its occurrence in the brain is reflected in memory loss. Trump at the moment is far from suffering senile dementia, but for him it would be a simple jump from wanting something (in this case peace between an old ally a new one) to the means existing. Trump might think the solution to the Indo-Pak conundrum is Kashmir, and he might want a solution, but the Indian establishment does not seem to agree.
Pakistan needs to be cautious about Trump intervening, because another intractable problem for which he is seeking a solution is Palestine, is not yet on the horizon, to allow any judgement on the quality of the solution. So far, though, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who is putting a solution together along with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, does not seem to be doing all that well. There is Israeli obduracy, but the Palestinians do not seem impressed.
At the same time, it should be remembered that Trump is a politician out for re-election, and that partisan goal is better served by Afghan withdrawal, not a Kashmir solution. At best, the Afghan solution must be achieved, and a Kashmiri solution kept as a carrot for Pakistan; at worst, it could be kicked onward to the next President. However, Trump might try to make India realise that the almost annual war-scare between two nuclear powers is inherently unstable, and must be avoided. It was also noteworthy that if Trump mentioned the nuclear issue, he did it as so much of an aside.
Trump and Imran have similarities, both having attended elite institutions without developing any intellectual tastes. Both have unorthodox marital lives and have been accused of disobeying their marriage vows. Both have attacked the press. Tump has gone further by asking Democrat Congresswomen of colour to ‘go back home’. It remains to be seen what equivalent Imran finds, but that he will, can be counted on.
