At Penpoint
- Modi may have copied Indira Gandhi, of all people
When the dust settled from the Indian election, it has resulted in an even greater triumph for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) than the one in 2014. Not only is this election rich in lessons for Indians, but it has lessons worldwide.
Perhaps the most obvious lesson is that of the decline of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and of the Congress Party, and perhaps both. In 1984, Congress went over the 400-mark in the Lok Sabha elections, on the sympathy wave created by the murder of one member of the dynasty, Indira Gandhi, in favour of another, Rajiv. BJP opponents might take some comfort from the fact that such majorities are not lasting. In 1989, Rajiv was turfed out of office. This victory is only preceded by that of the Congress in 1972, when Indira Gandhi was re-elected. Successive election wins were not unprecedented before that, and were in fact the rule, but it has been turn-and-turn-about since then.
There are two lessons to be drawn from that. The first is the evanescence of power. That victory was followed by not just the Emergency, but also the 1977 election defeat, the first suffered by Congress since Independence. In an eerie echo, that was the first time a member of the dynasty lost the Amethi constituency, for which Rahul Gandhi sat in the previous Lok Sabha, and which he lost this time around.
The main contenders for power in India, the BJP and Congress both have track records of opposing the very existence of Pakistan. The way international alignments are shaping up, it is Pakistan that will face pressure to do a U-turn to make peace, not India
Second, that win also showed the power of anti-Pakistan sentiment. Indira had contested the 1972 election immediately after the 1971 War, almost as if she was an Avatar of the goddess Kali. Similarly, Modi had campaigned on his anti-Pakistan credentials, complete with a war scare over the Pulwama incident. There had been much obloquy poured on Modi for risking the peace of South Asia just for an election, but it worked. For politicians, that is what counts.
Pakistani hopes were perhaps expressed best by Prime Minister Imran Khan, when before the election he said that a BJP victory was preferable, because only a hard-line government could make peace. That brought him under criticism for campaigning for the BJP from the Congress. However, that may have been merely putting a good face on what then seemed, and what turned out to be, an inevitability. Certainly, that statement may have spoiled his relations with Rahul Gandhi, but then, that doesn’t matter now. Imran will have to deal with Modi for the rest of his tenure.
Of course, Imran may have learned a dangerous lesson from this election that jingoistic war scares are good for campaigns and the possibility that Modi might try to use it again for the next election cannot be ruled out.
It cannot be said too often that such repeated crises place too much strain on the international system to last forever. It should not be forgotten that World War I started because of another in a series of Balkan crises, about which it was initially thought that the usual diplomatic conventions would contain, just as the previous ones had been. With Pakistan and India both deploying nuclear arms, war scares are like nothing, if not the proverbial box of matches given to a baby.
Imran will take heart from a number of things that Modi’s win has shown. Modi has shown that the incumbency factor, once such a millstone in the Third World, does not count, and re-election is possible. Second, he has once again beaten a dynasty, though it must be conceded that Modi only had to contend with one, while Imran has to fight with two.
The link between the Nehru-Gandhi and Bhutto-Zardari dynasties goes back to charges which the then opposition to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto levied against Bhutto’s maternal grandmother and Indira’s grandfather Motilal. However, the real parallels lie in the fact that there is a generational slip. Bhutto was the first generation, and his daughter Benazir the second paralleling Indira. Thus Benazir’s son Bilawal parallels Rajiv, rather than Rahul, the present Congress standard-bearer. Does Bilawal have enough steam to become PM? Imran has a vested interest in his failure.
Another dimension is the series of re-elections that are taking place. Indonesian President Joko Widodo has won re-election, as has South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s ruling coalition was looking good for the June 5 election after it performed well in the European Union elections on May 26. US President Donald Trump will seek re-election next year, and though US Presidents have been turned out after one term, the tendency is for them to win re-election. Imran’s party is the only one to have been re-elected to office in KP, and he would like to win office again.
The 1972 election was not fought by Indira on the 1971 War alone. There was also the Gharibi Hatao slogan, and Narendra Modi also made that promise both in 2014 and this time. However, it should be noted that none of the recent re-elections took place in a country under an IMF programme. Modi was first elected because of his performance as Gujarat Chief Minister. His first term as PM did not quite replicate that success, but he took a number of initiatives that gave hope for the second term.
Imran might take encouragement from the fact that Modi’s victory is part of a worldwide trend for hyperpatriotism. That phenomenon, which is reflected in the rise of white supremacists as well as in the rise of the Sangh Pariwar which delivered Modi his victory, in Pakistan may be reflected in the PTI, as the pushback against Islamophobia. The Modi win is reminiscent of the pre-Partition prevalence of the Sanatan Dharma Maha Sabha, and its influence on the Congress. The effect of the Maha Sabha was not just to deliver Hindu chauvinist support to Congress, which was then headed by Jawaharlal Nehru’s father Motilal, but also to drive many Muslims to the Muslim League, who would have remained out of politics.
Imran may have been overly optimistic. Of course, it should be noted that the main contenders for power in India, the BJP and Congress both have track records, of opposing the very existence of Pakistan. The way international alignments are shaping up, it is Pakistan that will face pressure to do a U-turn to make peace, not India. The only hope that Pakistan might have is that Modi might need to keep the Pakistan bogey alive for use at the next election, due by 2024.
