- White House’s stunning troop withdrawal decisions
On the 2016 presidential campaign trail, candidate Donald Trump repeatedly showed his isolationist bent which was reflected in his promise to extricate America from endless Middle Eastern and Afghan wars and fervent opposition to globalisation. This populist touch struck a powerful chord with disillusioned American voters and got him elected in the first place. However, disturbing developments in Syria and the Ukraine, and China’s burgeoning presence in the South China Sea made him backtrack from global non-entanglement, which latter can be compared to the American isolationism witnessed after the First Great War, during the decades of the nineteen twenties and thirties. But Trump’s anti-globalisation policy was implemented soon enough and has grown in intensity, especially against China, in the so called ‘trade war’ over tariffs.
Despite being dogged by severe political and domestic considerations, including losing the majority in House of Representatives to the Democrats, President Trump has chosen the present moment to revert to his campaign promise of an end to involvement in foreign quicksands. Two astonishing (for some American and foreign generals) military decisions are the result, the complete withdrawal of US troops from Syria and halving the current Afghan strength to a mere 7,000 soldiers. The first is attributed to a questionable rout of the Islamic State, the second to the failure of US field commanders to force a decisive outcome and lack of progress on a negotiated peace settlement. But an abrupt abandonment of a furious Afghanistan without a comprehensive, internationally guaranteed peace accord with the Taliban is also the very stuff of nightmares for Pakistan, as well as for other stakeholders who fear regional instability. Pakistan needs to chisel a clear cut policy in the face of impulsive Trump decisions, and fast changing circumstances, as the Taliban will be emboldened by such a retreat, the under-trained, ill-equipped and demoralised Afghan forces will face certain defeat, Afghan political discord will result in greater chaos and return of warlords, while Pakistan might face an upsurge of terrorism, from the IS group. The Zalmay Khalilzad peace initiative offers the best hope at present and Pakistan must vigorously assist in achieving it, in tandem with other friendly countries.
