- Testing times for establishment and politicians
Holding fair, free and transparent elections poses the most immediate challenge followed by an orderly transfer of power to the next government. In case the ECP and the mainstream parties manage to achieve the target through mutual cooperation, this would constitute a third completion of full tenure by an elected government followed by peaceful transition. Democratic process would however remain incomplete unless the next government gives Parliament the importance that the PML-N has denied it during its present tenure. In case the next prime minister and cabinet members continue to remain absent most of the time from the National Assembly and Senate sittings, this would weaken the Parliament and harm the democratic process. What is more the government would deprive itself of the Parliament’s support.
The next challenge is for institutions to operate strictly within the confines determined by the constitution. Parliament must remain the final forum to resolve political differences. The judiciary has to discourage politicians from taking political disputes to courts. Failure to do so has led to a situation where the Supreme Court had to spend almost a whole year adjudicating a highly politicised case. This led the losing side to raise a controversy over the judgment. The inclusion of three retired Brigadiers who had served in the ISI and MI in the IJT raised eyebrows. Two tweets posted by the ISPR spokesman were challenged and one had to be withdrawn.
The PML-N government’s unrealistic monetary policies were a major reason behind a continuous decline in exports and nearly 45 products lost competitiveness in the international market since 2013. With the recent devaluation, a window of opportunity has been created to enhance the export. With the power and gas shortages gradually coming to an end, Pakistan can attract both local and foreign investments provided the government simplifies the procedures and ensures continuation of economic policies. What is more it should take on board local stake holders while implementing the CPEC which it has so far failed to do.
The terrorist threat has been reduced but by no means eradicated. The year 2017 saw more suicide attacks than previous two years. The new year will test the resourcefulness of the prime security agencies, particularly NACTA. Their success would be measured by their ability to reduce the terror attacks.
Last year the lynching of young Mashal Khan at Wali Khan University in Mardan stunned the country. Then came the Faizabad sit-in by a particular sect that blocked the traffic between Rawalpindi and Islamabad for several days. Both indicated the seriousness of the threat posed by extremist thinking. So far there has been no coordinated response from the state to the phenomenon which among other things provides recruits to terrorist organizations. One expects the establishment to realise the need to eradicate the widespread extremist thinking in society.
Pakistan’s relations with neighbouring India, Afghanistan and Iran pose another challenge. Pakistan and India continue to nurse tensions under a nuclear overhang. The year 2017 saw a spurt in exchange of fire over LoC leading to mounting civilian and military casualties on both sides. Dialogue between the two countries is indispensable to addressing crises to avert any catastrophe. A meeting between the two NSAs took place after two years in December 2017. One expects both sides to make efforts to revive the stalled talks in 2018.
The trilateral Pak-Afghan-China talks were a step forward and there is a need to continue the process. Pakistan should avoid taking sides in the Saudi-Iranian dispute and instead maintain balance in its relations with both and try to mediate between them whenever possible.
Pakistan has to tread carefully in its relations with the US. Giving primacy to its own national interests, Islamabad should cooperate in the fight against terrorist networks without getting sucked into the Afghan quagmire.
Pakistan should meanwhile continue to deepen relations with China. It should also expand economic relations with Russia and Turkey through trade and investment.
