Nothing’s changed, really
Not much has really changed, or is going to change, in Afghanistan with Donald Trump’s new Afghan plan, despite the apparent glee in Kabul. The US has experimented with temporary surges a good couple of times in the war against terrorism with precious little to write home about. The reasoning is simple. When hundreds of thousands of feet on the ground, and of courses the world’s deadliest weaponry, could not get the job done before jetting away, there’s no way really that a few thousand for a few months can snatch any ground from a Taliban offensive that has been reclaiming land, and minds, for some years now.
Unless, of course, they have changed strategy from eliminating the enemy to sitting down and negotiating and end to the fighting. That seems plausible, especially with one quadrilateral grouping followed by another to achieve just such an end. But with the Taliban not willing to talk till US troops leave, and US refusing to recall troops till the Taliban come to a negotiated settlement, both sides are still, despite the long years of the war, trying to put the cart before the horse, and are eager to be seen doing it first.
It doesn’t help, of course, that Trump dumped a heap of criticism on Pakistan while announcing his policy, and dragged India into the centre-stage. Those far closer to the war than the US president, and for far longer, understand far better that the war will not end till the Taliban and US talk, and that in turn will not happen unless Pakistan plays a central role. Therefore, at the risk of repetition, there can be no first order of business other than getting Islamabad and Kabul to sort out their differences first. Only when Pakistan and Afghanistan can create a conducive environment for long term and very serious business will there be any chance of the US and Taliban sitting down to talk; and finally ending this long, long war.
