And their eventual butterfly effect
South Korea faces strategic vulnerabilities ahead. It has to create political stability and address external challenges vis-a-vis North Korea, Japan, and China. There are issues with the United States. South Korean political stability links with the stability on the Korean Peninsula, maintaining a meaningful dialogue with regards to these countries and multiple issues in the Asia-Pacific.
For the past few months, South Korea has been facing internal political cleavage, which is not yet over. The hot issue is the impeachment of President Geun-hye Park, calling new election, formation of an elected government, and improvement of ties with Japan (sourced by the Comfort Women feud as Japan recalled its heads of diplomatic missions in December). The newly elected government in Seoul might follow a different course of ties with Japan, unlike those followed by President Park.
The leadership vacuum poses a great challenge, keeping in mind Seoul’s tough ties with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) after the closure of the Kaesong industrial complex last year. Under a leadership vacuum, South Korea could not effectively respond to provocations made by the DPRK (the latest missile launch on 12 February).
Seoul’s relationship with Washington is not clear altogether – this confusion has to be removed. The understanding developed between the interim government and the Trump administration might be changed and put on a different course of action. They definitely differed on Japan, and a joint North Korean approach has to be developed yet. The US Defence Secretary, James Mattis, assured Seoul during his recent visit of all sorts of traditional security assistance in the framework of the alliance. These are initial assurances by the Trump administration but the situation would become further clear after the elected government was installed in Seoul. President Donald Trump has already attempted to strike a balance in his policy toward Japan and China. Within the scope of this policy, he might be thinking of swiftly approaching the Pyongyang administration – following an official back-door channel to engage with North Korea – rather than following through to a close understanding with Seoul. The talks were put on hold after Kim Jong Nam, half-brother of DPRK’s ruler Kim Jong-un, was assassinated in Kuala Lumpur on 13 February.
What does “America First” mean for Trump’s ties with South Korea? If the Americans could lessen their military burden in the Asia-Pacific instead of costly re-balancing and sailing the pivot, Trump might go to normalise ties with Pyongyang. President Trump definitely wants to reduce the cost of stationing 28,500 US troops in South Korea – a message given to Japan as well. Trump might not opt for war with North Korea as he wants to revive the American economy and to lessen the strategic burden.
These are just assumptions depending on how President Trump would respond after the new government is formed in Seoul. It would be a wise decision for the newly elected government in Seoul to frame its own independent stance towards the North Korean issue rather than simply riding on US support and anticipating a cooperative hand from Japan at a time when diplomatic ties have deteriorated between the two countries.
The possibility of the Six-Party Talks seems further doomed because of the growing regional differences, inter-Korean cleavages, Japan-South Korea feud, and dissimilarity of views between South Korea and China on deployment of a defence system.
The scrapping of the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) last month was a setback to South Korean expectations – Seoul had been an enthusiastic member trying to capture the US consumer market and takeover jobs, as feared by President Trump, who wants to create jobs for US citizens. South Korea needs to accommodate with this approach. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States would be facing the same challenge.
The deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system, an American anti-missile system, is a source of considerable friction and has chilled South Korean relations with China in recent months. As a result of this controversy, South Korean trade with China has been suffering and many businesses are facing closure including that of the Lotte Group, South Korea’s largest enterprise. There are over 120 large-scale Lotte super marts across China and over 2000 South Korean companies in Shandong. Further, China is the largest trading partner of South Korea. If it is strongly committed to the deployment of the THAAD, it would ruin its economic ties with China, which demands the cancellation of the system.
The Asia-Pacific has been facing a new situation and this depends on the internal situation in South Korea and its external responses in the region. A multilateral regional approach involving South Korea, Japan, and China, and free trade trilateralism together with a comprehensive approach toward creating peace prospects on the Korean Peninsula are the sine qua non for progress and stability in North East Asia.
