The future of Abenomics and US-Japan relations
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would most likely to pursue a different course of foreign policy initiatives toward Asia-Pacific countries. Many countries in Asia are wary of these policies. Japan, a close U.S ally, is wary and shares many concerns when Trump would implement his first 100 days policies in the White House.
Japan faces the ”Trump Shock” after the ”Nixon Shock” of the 1970 when the United States recognised China without consulting Japan. Trump passed unfavourable comments about Japan during the election campaign. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe fairly invested in ”Pivot to Asia” and ”Re-balance” approach since 2012 as well as in the U.S.-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Abe’s reasserted Japan’s security role as described in Article 9 of the Constitution. These were Japan’s core interests in its new foreign policy since 2012.
Abe had a meeting with Trump on 18 November before former’s taking of office and discussed important issues, and above all, the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Abe did not disclose details of these discussions to the media. Reports were based upon analyses and speculations. He hoped to continue to ”trust” in U.S.-Japan relations.
Both might have discussed the cost of the U.S. bases in Japan. Japan bears US$ 1.7 billion annually for the military cost of these bases. The actual cost is more. Trump wants Japan to share the entire cost, otherwise Trump would withdraw all American troops stationed on Japan’s soil, as he disclosed during the election campaign.
This also poses a challenge to the already exhausted Japanese finances and if Abe’s agrees to share the entire cost, there might be a public backlash and opposition might launch movement against the presence of U.S. troops on Japan’s soil. Trump is a multi-billion businessman and he knows the art to do business with Japan. Abe is on a thin rope and see how he will save the military alliance with the United States.
Trump suggested Japan to have its own nuclear weapons to defend its interests. During World War II, the United States crushed Japan nuclear capability and brought it under its own control so that it should not be a perpetual thread to global peace. The two atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It seems that Trump might adopt a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign and defence policy toward the post-war Japan.
Looking at the gravity of geo-security situation in Asia-Pacific and Japan’s confrontation with China and North Korea and inking of the Indo-Japanese nuclear deal, could easily deteriorate peace and stability in the region. General public strongly averts to Japan’s nuclear possession and deals with foreign countries. Trump tenure in office would a testing time for Japan to change its defence and security policy.
Japan’s intends to adopt an economic policy to challenges posed by the rise of China under its One Belt One Road (OBOR) and a number of related challenges. Changes in security policy would likely derail Japan in responding to China’s economic ascendance.
Trump objects to the TPP and his intention to withdraw from the trading alliance once he takes office. The TPP looks a real set back to Japan as its House of Representatives has passed a bill on 4 November to go ahead with the deal, which is now laying with the Upper House of Councillors. After Trump’s victory and Abe’s discussion with him, it looks that the TPP deal is at limbo in Japanese national Diet. Within the next couple of months, it would be clear that what course of action would be adopted by Japan.
The TPP excludes China while promoting the free trade in the Asia-Pacific region. President Obama thought that China should not dictate rules of business in Asia-Pacific. China counters the TPP by supporting the ASEAN initiative of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). To counter China economic ascendance, Japan strongly favoured the TPP.
The TPP is against ground realities. China is major trading economy and by isolating it, no primary objective could be achieved. However, now Abe is not a strong position to save the TPP when the United States withdraws. Moreover, formers in Japan oppose the TPP as it forces Japan to withdraw agricultural protection given to the farmers. So Abe faces a front at home too. Yet it is difficult to assume that which way the TPP would go and how Japan would save its interests.
Trump’s tenure in office is also a setback to stagnated ”Abenomics”. Abe prefers devaluation of the yen to sell more goods to the United States and other countries and to create more jobs at home by increased production. These are ”Abenomics” responses to the economic rise of China too. Trump wanted to impose sanctions on countries that manipulate currencies and raise import tariffs to protect domestic job-seekers. In this situation, strategic management of the ”Abenomics” would remain un-addressed.
