Trump’s impact on relations with Pakistan

What we need to bear in mind for the Trump administration

Whether you like or not, Republican nominee Donald Trump, a billionaire businessman and a Manhattan real estate developer, has become the 45th U.S. President on elections held in the United States on 4 November. He will be in the White House on 20 January next year for at least for four years. Not only minorities in the U.S. but the rest all over the world are worried about his future foreign policy initiatives. Considering the legislative history of the U.S., cries and anti-Trump campaign would not work at the end. He has become a reality and now we must try to learn how to live with the reality.

President Obama has already learnt how to live with Trump when he met with the President elected trump in the White House on 10 November. Obama found his chemistry working with him. This was a learning exercise for the other Americans and also to the leaders in other countries. Let’s also see if his chemistry is also working with the rest of Americans and people around the worlds.

Let’s give fair bit of chance and time to Trump to access his original policy. The election was very closely contested. He got the majority mandate 0f 290 electoral votes against 228 Democrat Hillary Clinton got. “America will no longer settle for anything less than the best,” Trump said to the nation after winning. Popular votes of 48 percent against 47 percent did not work. In a mammoth democracy like America, it is decided by an electoral vote than a popular vote. This clearly signifies the loop-holed system of democracy prevailing all over the world. Mandate, however, was not rigged. It was voice of the Americans although with a thin margin and this hackneyed system made Trump the winner.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif wasted no time in sending a message to Trump for his victory in the hope to work together to improve relations under his presidency. Situation in Pakistan was not in favour of Trump in the past several months. How Pakistan ran out of Trump’s unexpected triumph is a lingering question. Whenever one tried to seek public opinion about Trump in Pakistan, people first laughed and then criticised his narrow policies.

They never expected Trump winning the election. TV channels ran long discussions and broadcasted elections results and in the morning all were stunned. Their analyses fell on the grounds. In the morning, they were not prepared to make fresh, hasty, and unprepared comments and analyses on Trump’s unexpected victory. This was the lacuna of Pakistani channels as they are habitual of pre-planned emotional reactions.

Trump has declared that America is for the Americans.  He is known for his criticism on Pakistan and his anti-Muslim rhetoric during the election campaign. “We will defeat radical ‘Islamic terrorism when I’m the President” he said. He wondered that if Pakistan is an ally how come an al-Qaeda Chief, Osama bin Ladan was killed by the U.S. forces at Abbottabad?

Pointing at the 9/11 incidents, he is also of the view that people with roots in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Somalia pose threats to the United States. He called a ban on Muslims entering the United States.

He also enticed to work closely with India to end terrorism. India blames Pakistan for all sorts of terrorism and calls it the ”mother-ship” of all terrorism. India would surely influence trump’s anti-terrorism policy by encircling Pakistan. Trump has won on anti-immigration slogans that would affect visa-seekers around the world that also includes Pakistani students and immigrants.

Trump has a tilt toward India unlike the Republican policies in the 196o, 1970s, and 1980s toward Pakistan. Now even Democrats favour India for their global outreach than Pakistan as the second nuclear armed nation in South Asia, and dealing with terrorism in Afghanistan. The Republicans and Democrats favouring India have multiplied, and the same pattern is likely to be followed in the future.

For Pakistan, there was, in fact, no choice even Clinton would have won the election. The U.S. Congress policy toward Pakistan has remained almost the same. Pakistan has no flair to tame the Congress and its restive horse. Lobby is too intricate. Things have much changed. Pakistan only has to deal with the White House but these policies are seasonal.

Yet Trump would not dump out Pakistan for a number of reasons and this changed relationship would continue because of the possession of nuclear arsenals by Pakistan and its sharing of border with Afghanistan, where the United States maintain forces. Trump has acknowledged this. He looks at Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals differently to that of India’s and he thus indicated to resume aid to Pakistan if it abolishes its nuclear arsenals. The same message is not for India.

If these statements were true and not electioneering slogans, the next four years in the Pakistan-U.S. relations would be thorny, where India would be influencing its policy. There would be an element of uncertainty in Pakistan-U.S. relationship and Pakistan needs to make preparation for that.

If both Pakistan and India agree, Trump would act as an arbitrator between the two countries to sort out the differences, especially in the flare up situation in Kashmir. Analysts believe that Trump has a tilt toward India and would not be able to craft balance approach, which Pakistan is badly seeking for. The imbalance also continued during the Democratic rule, but Islamabad thinks that relations were improved during 2013-2016, and the same momentum is likely under the Trump term in office. More than Pakistan, Trump policy would actually determine the historical functional relations with Pakistan.