Nawaz and the investigation

What it’s turning into

The Panama investigation has become, as rightly noted in parts of the press, too politicised to expect any sort of real accountability anytime soon. The government, after parading the first family on TV and embarking on a media slugfest with the opposition, seems to have decided on the time-tested strategy (in Pakistan) of dragging the matter for as long as possible. That, in part, explains the more unbelievable of its statements; like the PM and his family be investigated alongside everybody else mentioned in the papers. That also explains why the back-and-forth about the ToRs and negotiations, etc, might not have run its course just yet.

And it’s not as if the opposition is helping its own case. The ruling party had overcome all obstacles put in its way when the Panama Leaks appeared as a bolt from the blue. Suddenly the clear chit after the dnarna, the reassurance of the bye-elections, the sound victory in the local body elections, etc, are things way back in the past. Survival is once again at stake. But despite the momentum going its way early on, the opposition seems too disunited to take part of the weaknesses of the government.

For the moment it seems Nawaz may have weathered the storm. Sure the investigation will have to move forward sooner or later. But there’s still no telling about its specifics. It’s not even clear which organ of state, or some organ from outside the state, will actually conduct the inquiry. But even if Nawaz survives, it’s not as if he’ll walk scot free. This scandal has already eroded much of his credibility when it comes to financial accountability. Nawaz may have distanced himself from the offshore money, but only legally. And stories about where the monies came from in the first place will continue to do the rounds, regardless of the fate of the investigation, all the way to the next general election. So what follows is anything but clear.