Leaks’ damages continue to increase

PM to get serious and worried

Rather unexpectedly, but the damage caused by Panama Papers’ leaks is becoming huge and more wide-spread. It has gone to the extent of destabilizing and endangering the system which many thought initially to be a far-fetched possibility. Why did it happen? Why has it snowballed when it was not expected? And why is it becoming dangerous?

Four things helped it happen and balloon out of proportion; a) that whatever was there in the Panama Leaks was true, b) the government mishandled it, c) the opposition parties didn’t side with the government like the previous time when it faced a political challenge and, d) the army threw its weight against it when the government needed it the most.

Panama Leaks proved a godsend to PTI which had seemed to be losing it sheen at a popular level because of lack of issues to agitate against the government. Also, the party was faced with two terminal problems; organizational failure and internal rifts. But the surprising thing is that this time Imran Khan seems to be playing his cards carefully and rightly.

His address in Lahore on Sunday, May 1st – though replete with his favourite ‘oldies’ – was focused, determined, relevant and wise, all at the same time. It was focused on Nawaz Sharif, his family and party alone. It was determined to cause maximum possible political damage. It was relevant because ‘corruption’ is a catchword in the wake of those cursed leaks. And it was wise because he named no other leader or party and hinted at the possibility of accommodation and cooperation with other political parties on the one-point agenda to bring Nawaz down.

So, as far as PTI is concerned, it is clear in its goals. But, what is PPP up to? Why is it cooperating with the PTI against PML-N? Can’t it result in breakdown of the current democratic dispensation which the PPP so vehemently tried to protect during its rule and after under the slogan of ‘continuity of the system’?

There are three likely reasons why PPP is building pressure on the government. One is that conforming to the democratic traditions, it is fulfilling its duty to press for a thorough investigation into the Panama leaks affair and so make sure that the system’s credibility is not compromised. (You don’t agree with it? Well, nobody does.)So, let’s move to the second reason which may be compelling this party to challenge its erstwhile democratic companion. Political pundits are of the view that these are political and electoral considerations which are dictating the PPP to take a hard stance against PML-N as gain of one party is loss of the other. PPP at the present appears to be a dying party which cannot afford to go soft on its political rival and accept an eminent death. Third, of course, is the bargaining factor. PPP’s hard stance against Nawaz Sharif can compel him to yield something in Sindh and elsewhere – although our teacher Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi is of firm opinion that the federal PML-N government is not in a position to provide some relief to Zardari in Sindh.

There is also another aspect to it and that is that the public rants against each other might be a ploy to mislead both PTI and the establishment of the real motive which is the continuation of the present system. However, all these surmises are based on the assumption that it is only PPP-PML-N cooperation/unity that can save the democratic order from derailment.

What if PPP has calculated that going with PTI can actually save the system – and get it a room – instead of siding with PML-N? The current situation is not allowing Asif Ali Zardari to be seen as a partner with Nawaz Shairf or it will prove a death knell for his PPP in Punjab. PTI is bent upon dislodging him, while the ruling party has adopted an unreasonably aggressive way to deal with the opposition. If anything, all these factors together are adding up to a feeling of political instability and apparently leading to a political stalemate that may result in something bad happening to the system. Can an alliance or understanding of sorts between PPP and PTI not ensure the continuation of the system? Though it may have pitfalls of its own, it has the potential of giving a new look to politics, especially in Punjab. Plus it can bring some concessions to PPP from the all-powerful establishment.  But this appears to be a distant possibility at the moment.

What is here right now is the question of what sort of situation can we expect during the coming days. There are three probabilities; 1) the government shows flexibility and accommodate the demands of the opposition with regard to the formation of the commission under the chief justice and the ToRs for that commission. This will be helpful in bringing down political temperature in the country and avoiding a possible chaos. Second is that the government sticks to its stubbornness, the opposition sticks to its guns and a situation is created in which Nawaz Sharif is left with no option but to call snap elections. The third probable scenario is the worst of all and that is that the PM doesn’t get a chance to call elections and the third force intervenes to clear the filth scattered by politicians.

In the wake of the understanding reached between opposition parties on May 3 on the issue of ToRs and some demands regarding resignation of the PM and the investigations to start from Nawaz Sharif and his family members, it is but natural to expect some flexibility from the ruling party. But ‘some flexibility’ may mean one thing to us; it may be quite another and unacceptable proposition for PML-N. Like, can PM afford an independent and detailed investigation into his and his family’s financial wheeling and dealing over the years that can seal their fate; making impossible their political comeback and even them landing in jails? With such possibilities, can he allow forensic auditors to dig deep into his family’s financial fortunes made since 1983 – as mentioned in proposed ToRs of the opposition parties?

But whether he can afford it or not, the advisable way forward shall be to show that ‘undesirable’ flexibility to let the ball start rolling. As a second step, he can announce early elections. What will these actions do for him? Pertinent question. And the answer is; the ToRs proposed by the opposition are not going to be covered fully in the maximum 4 months period as envisaged by these opposition parties meeting. So, it can be dragged (by delaying tactics of the government investigative agencies in providing required information, etc) for at least a year; if there is a will, there is a way. The early elections can be called during the first half of next year.

This will help NS in more than one way. The time gained can be used to complete the on-going developmental projects and to overcome the energy crisis to the maximum possible extent. While the enquiry will be not be complete, the PM can go to the people to claim that as his hands were clean therefore, he not only formed an independent judicial commission but also presented himself in the court of the people by going to early elections. Though not ideal, he can at least take advantage of benefit of doubt and secure whatever little he can during the coming elections.

However, will the opposition allow him to do that? And will he refrain himself – keeping in view the odds against him – to take the risk of yet another adventure in his third term?

But whether he likes it or not, and whatever he wants to do with his politician brothers, the ‘enemy is at the gates’. The Corps Commanders have reaffirmed their resolve on May 1, that come what may, they are about to enter the ‘no-go’ areas of Punjab.

Aah! It is sometime so pleasing to think one is not Nawaz Sharif.