More than meets the eye
While TTP attacks in North Waziristan – even military casualties – are to be expected as Zarb-e-Azb runs its course, surprises in South Waziristan are not. The South was officially secured some time ago. So much so that IDP repatriation, in phases, had also been green-lighted, even if on ground progress has left a little to be desired. That is why the checkpost attack in the Ladha area of South Waziristan is raising so many question marks. Considering how delicately Pakistan’s position in the wider war against terrorism hinges on a successful military sweep of the tribal area, the army cannot afford incidents that push it on the back foot, however temporarily.
Yet, strangely, the incident also scores a point for the military. One reason operations in the six agencies (other than NW) lasted so long was that regional demographics allowed militatns to slip between agencies with little difficulty. Once the army cleared one and moved to another, militants would circumvent the advance and snake their way back. With no political system, especially, they quickly found pockets of strength and influence again. But since Zarb-e-Azb, the logistic loopholes have been managed very well. There has been little news, if any, of militants able to easily brew trouble in South Waziristan. Remember this is the border area where thick jungle cover rebutted even nato attempts at successful quarantine on the other side of the Durand Line.
The trouble in the south also owes to political developments, Mehsud tribe militancy and alleged IS penetration. Around the time of the Khalid Sajna group breakup, and later when Mehsuds were bypassed in favour of Mullah Fazlullah, a string of rebellions burst out in SW. These stemmed from the insurgency but did not contribute to it. So the Ladha attack could either be a counter-push to NW, or it could be another teaser from the Mehsuds. Either way the military needs to keep its guard up. Only very recently Pakistan has begun receiving international praise for finally doing the right things in the war. There is a need to build on the successes. No doubt the military, and of course the government, has these considerations foremost in mind.
