From a purely realist perspective, we need to acquiesce in the fact that as soon as the US retracts its forces from Afghanistan, it will be a hotly contested zone for newly emerging powers-namely China and India — which will want to include the country in their sphere of influence. The American policy towards Afghanistan has arguably been counterproductive: their policy was supposed to be similar to the British arrangement for FATA in Pakistan — to give people in the region a reasonable amount of autonomy without any top down national imperative imposed on them. The tribal setup in Afghanistan is unique in this sense.
The US policy, which was at complete odds with what the tribal arrangement in Afghanistan required, ultimately led to a devastating backfire- in that it formed the basis of Taliban’s proselytization countrywide as well as formation of alliances between Tribes to defeat the weak Afghan government. The fragmented nature of the society can be exemplified by the fact that the soviet decline led to fierce battle among the tribes led by people such as Gulbadin Hikmat Yar, Jalaluddin Haqqani etc, until Ahmed Shah Masud of the Taliban triumphed. Now that there are various countries which are interested in managing the affairs of Afghanistan, where there is currently a kind of political vacuum, Pakistan will have to step in and take extremely calculated decisions.
The Chinese and Indians will remain supportive of the role of the Afghan government, which historically has not shared very cordial relations with Pakistan. Pakistan’s unequivocal support for the Afghan government may get them on the same page with the Chinese and the Indians — this may reduce their bargaining power vis-à-vis the two emerging powers on Afghan issues as well as keep Pakistan’s relations with the two countries economized when it shows that its policy is consistent with its ongoing war on terror, which has not always been the case- especially in the Indian occupied Kashmir.
The question then is: what will help Pakistan maintain its prominence in the problems faced by Afghanistan? The country’s government and the military apparatus have to mediate between the Taliban and the Afghan government. This would prevent any Taliban-Pakistan antinomy in the future which could lead to Pakistan wresting control of various subjects in Afghanistan, such as the Haqqanis, through a lopsided approach, in an attempt to contain their threat which is essential since the country has been providing safe haven to many terrorists who enter Pakistan through the porous Durand Line.
SANAULLAH KHAN
Lahore
