A parallel route through Pakistan?
With an economic meltdown in the west, Asia gets the attention of world powers as the ultimatum market. That, of course, means Asia’s biggest market, China. The biggest loser in the meltdown – the US – is pitching India as a possible player to counter the growing influence of China across the Asian region.
The US administration last year relocated its forces in the Asia Pacific region and doubled its bilateral trade with India. China is keenly watching these moves.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a pre-emptive move, decided to expand its footprint beyond the Pacific Ocean and announced the launch of Maritime Silk Route (MSR), enabling Chinese shipping outreach to the Indian ocean, gulf and beyond.
The proposed plan would help connect the ports of the countries of Asia Pacific, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean with the Chinese industry. It would be a win-win situation for all parties who have different objectives and ambitions despite being linked in the biggest shipping project of the South East Asia region.
According to an initial estimate, the total cost of the project is $22 billion, which may exceed significantly. It would help China link with the ports of Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and India. Moreover, infrastructure projects and special economic zones would also be a part of the Maritime Silk Route.
China and India have also been involved in increasing their respective diplomatic, military and economic influence in South East Asia
Moreover, President Xi Jinping is also making efforts to use the shortest-possible trade route into Gulf and central Asian states, by laying a parallel Silk Route through Pakistan.
For that purpose, $35 billion are being invested in a rail-road link between Kashgar and Gwadar Port — the biggest deep seaport in the region. This plan is called Silk Route. China is also convincing Pakistani civil and military leadership to include India in the Silk Route which would also involving Afghanistan and Central Asian states.
Since a peaceful period would usher into progress and development for Asia, China is keeping India, Russia and Iran in the loop over the peace process so the dialogue makes headway and no neighbour torpedoes the secret dialogue with the Afghan Taliban.
Since being given a lead role in Afghan peace process, China has been in deep contact with the Taliban — a source of concern in New Delhi. The Chinese president also has been urging Pakistan to keep India onboard in their joint efforts to bring peace and harmony in war-ravaged Afghanistan.
China and India are the two most populous countries. China is the fastest growing economy in the world while India is also trying to catch up. The resultant growth in China coupled with India’s international diplomatic and economic influence may not only increase the significance of their bilateral relationship but also this relationship may also help benefit the poverty-stricken people of the Asia.
However, this is not happening as India looks more focused on negative tactics to damage China’s rise – perhaps a job assigned by countries who feel threatened by the steady rise of new powers on the world map.
China and India have also been involved in increasing their respective diplomatic, military and economic influence in South East Asia. Recently this tussle came to the fore when fresh water crisis hit Maldives and its government sought help from various countries. China, while responding to the call, shipped a military vessel carrying 960 tonnes of fresh water to the Maldives.
The Chinese government has also donated $500,000 for necessary repairs of the country’s damaged desalination plant. India tried to go beyond its capacity in an apparent effort to match the Chinese move, and sent many vessels of fresh water to help out the Maldivian peoples.
The Chinese initiative of Maritime Silk Road is being evaluated by New Delhi and Washington with concern and scepticism as both the states, sharing a hostile history against China, think that the Chinese objective were ‘beyond economic gains’ in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean.
The relations between the neighbours are marred with border skirmishes, diplomatic rows and ambitious plans for achieving economic hegemony in South Asia. Bilateral ties between nosedived following the China-India War of 1962.
This followed with the Chola incident in 1967, and the 1987 Sino-Indian conflict. However, since the late 1980s, both countries attempted to reengage in diplomatic and economic ties. In 2008, China turned out to be India’s biggest trading partner and the two countries have also attempted to extend their strategic and military relations.
India also remains worried about the increasing strategic partnership of China with its archrival — Pakistan, the only regional minnow which it has failed to control. China, on the other hand, has expressed concerns about Indian military and economic activities in the disputed South China Sea, the cementing of ties between India and Vietnam and the Indian efforts to play around with its another rival — Japan.
Most recently, China floated a proposal with Bangladesh to develop a new deepwater port at the Bangladesh island of Sonadia which could be open to use by the Chinese navy. However, India used its pressure over Dhaka and convinced the regime to open up bidding for Sonadia and other ports in Bangladesh to international investors. Now the port is likely to be developed and operated by a consortium not dominated by China.
However, in a tit-for-tat move, Pakistan played a key role in bringing together Sri Lanka and China and Sri Lanka is now becoming a strategic partner in the Bay. Since the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war, Colombo has emerged as China’s primary partner in the MSR initiative.
In his bid to improve strained relations between India and China, President Xi made a statesman-like gesture to soothe ties with India by making a landmark visit in October last year — becoming the first Chinese leader to be feted in India after Zhou Enlai.
Since being given a lead role in Afghan peace process, China has been in deep contact with the Taliban — a source of concern in New Delhi
During his India yatra, President Xi announced a five-year plan, pledging investments worth $20 billion amidst another fresh border flare-up, involving 50,000 troops from each side in a standoff at Ladakh frontier. The dispute left a bad taste though, refreshing the history of conflicts between the neighbours.
The Silk Route would provide India with a strong opportunity not only to improve ties with China, improve its connectivity with other regional states and also harness its ability to successfully implement ambitious plans.
Maldives, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have expressed their deep interest in the maritime plan, while India has been cautious — perhaps due to Washington’s scepticism over the Chinese plan. However, much of the ice-melting has started with the recent visit of President Xi to India.
India can’t stay away anymore from Silk Route plan as regional connectivity is a very attractive idea floated by China. India would be isolated in the region if it succumbs to Washington’s pressure and decides to stay away from the MSR initiative as other smaller states have jumped into the fray and have publicly announced to join it.
During the second meeting of the Joint Study Group of the Joint Study Group (JSG) comprising of Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC), each member-state has promised to put forward their respective vision for the corridor for the next meeting in Kolkata this year.
With the objective of putting plans into motion, all the countries have also agreed to prepare a combined country report on the seven thematic areas as identified at the first JSG: connectivity; energy; investment and financing; trade in goods and services and trade facilitation; social and human development and poverty alleviation; sustainable development; and people-to-people contact.
China will come up with its plans on better connectivity and investment, while India is likely to focus on energy and trade.
Keeping in view the entire scenario, the competitive economic environment coupled with ambitious planning by political leadership of the Asian states may usher in an era of fast infrastructure development and economic boom in the South Asia region. This would greatly help the peoples of the Asia. However, for the purpose, Indian leadership would have to rise above and see beyond conspiracies.
