Imran’s cross

Carried by democracy

There are people who ask which way the Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri’s sit-ins are likely to end. There are political leaders who think that the tide of the ‘system’ will be back from the excruciating ebb as Parliament has shown its strength and the protest has already run out of steam. And then there still are political analysts who, while criticising the government and acknowledging flaws in the system, conclude that the worst is over and that the ‘resolution’ of the conflict will most probably be peaceful now.

Though, there certainly are arguments behind these expectations and conclusions, there also are strong countervailing questions, indicators and reasons which restrain one from becoming over-optimistic still. Turning back and finding a peaceful way out wouldn’t have been impossible, had the main player possessed a political mind and had he not locked every door behind him while taking every step ahead in this long and disastrous journey. Add to it the typical laidback attitude of the government and the widely suspected behind-the-scene manipulations of the invisible puppeteers, and the recipe for some untoward, unpleasant and undemocratic turn of events is complete.

The first reason making one doubtful about finding a political solution to the current crisis is the inflexible positions taken by the parties involved. Whether right or wrong, they themselves and the prevailing circumstances have imposed upon them such a rigid posture which they can’t change, even if they want to. Imran Khan (IK) has pushed himself into this situation due to his belief in his own self and his conviction that there exists nothing called impossible. While the government is under the burden of democratic traditions and almost unqualified support of the Parliament and political parties across the board, at least on the issue of resignation of the prime minister, which unfortunately is the core demand of both the protesting leaders.

The second reason is the predetermined objectives of IK and Tahirul Qadri (TuQ). They, by sticking to the resignation demand so vehemently, don’t seem to have any other long-term political goal than sending Nawaz Sharif (NS) packing, though it in itself has long-term connotations. In this respect TuQ is felt to be speaking for someone else directly while IK has fallen into a trap, out of his own free will, that he can’t get out of now. He believes he is the Messiah without whom Pakistan cannot survive and progress. Call it amour propre, self-infatuation or, if you like, symptoms of a charismatic leader appearing prematurely. But it is for sure that not only he believes in what he says but also that a strong effort is underway to make him into a real sweetheart of the masses overnight, no matter what is the final outcome of the present turmoil. However, looking at his future prospects, he doesn’t seem to become a Fidel Castro but is more likely to end up a la Che Guvera without substance.

The third reason which doesn’t allow one feel comfortable about the future is the apparent annoyance of the army with what NS said about its role as a mediator or facilitator and the ‘neutral’ stance adopted collectively by it as an institution. But was the decision to remain neutral made before that embarrassing statement of the Prime Minister or after, is a million dollar question. Reality seems to be shrouded in mystery because there were contradictory indications to be seen before NS speech in the Joint Session of the Parliament. As a national institution, the posture of the armed forces can’t be termed exemplary or befitting even if NS is condemned of telling lies before the august House and blemishing the image of the army. The questions of imposition of Article 245 in the federal capital, its selective implementation but even then keeping some highly sensitive national installations out of its ambit – by mistake maybe — are so stark to be left unanswered for long. The mystery of trespassing of the precincts of the Parliament House by the runaway mob on the night falling between August 30-31, 2014, is also unresolved so far. Such is the case with the ISPR statements issued regarding the continuing political crisis whenever it chose to issue one. While reaffirming the armed forces’ commitment to ‘democracy’ in every statement, none of these contained the word ‘constitution’. Nor did the army deemed it fit to reaffirm its allegiance to a constitutionally elected legitimate government of Pakistan in the discharge of its duties.

It seems as if the leaders are waiting for something about which only they are in the know. But what is that something? TuQ may have some clue about it; IK doesn’t have the scantest idea. Or he would have reached a compromise with government and called it a day long ago

The fourth reason, and which might be the most important of all, is that the people and circumstances which brought the matters to the current pass don’t seem to have changed so far. To many of the observers the people who have brought this mob to Islamabad and raised the stakes so high didn’t do it only to weaken the government and then allow the status quo to maintain itself. If just bringing the government down on its knees was the purpose, it was achieved very early in the day – much, much before August 12, 2014. So, whether it was IK, TuQ, Shiekh Rasheed or someone else to plan and execute all this had more long-lasting objectives in mind; IK admitted for the first time on Friday, September 26, that it wasn’t just about the resignation of the Prime Minister, it was about folding the system. ‘System’, you know!

Fifth is the inexplicable persistence of the sit-ins which are dragging on with no end in sight. This continuation of the dharnas in front of some of the most important symbols of the state, constitution, democracy and government is akin to the country living on the edge; some say it is like Pakistan sitting on a powder keg surrounded by fire. It seems as if the leaders are waiting for something about which only they are in the know. But what is that something? TuQ may have some clue about it; IK doesn’t have the scantest idea. Or he would have reached a compromise with government and called it a day long ago.

But what is likely to come? Why does the situation seem so scary? Why does one get this feeling as if something diabolical is in the air?

It might be because of the probable ways this stalemate may take to resolve. Provided everything remains as it is today, the most likely scenario can be something like this: Situation continues unchanged for some more time. People become more attentive to what these leaders say and start agreeing with them more and more. Then suddenly, and seemingly on a most unlikely moment, something extremely bad happens. The powder keg catches fire. People start falling; bodies dispatched home. Chaos spreads to other parts of the country. Violence rules and law and order break down. Army is sucked in and compelled to control the situation from descending into complete anarchy.

Reaching this point, everything else that may follow will be meaningless. Whether the army directly takes over or install a neutral government comprising uncontroversial, neutral figures and technocrats, for an extended period of time to fulfill the unfinished agenda of accountability and reforming the ‘system’ which the martyrs sacrificed their lives for, have the same meaning; untimely and illegal departure of a democratically elected government, derailment of the (corrupt) system and indictment of democracy as a system not suitable to the genius of Pakistanis. But what about the constitution? Well, though the ‘Army… has expressed its unequivocal support for democracy at numerous occasions’, it has not boasted the same way about upholding the constitution even once in its statements. The boys, it must be accepted, are very straightforward people; they never tell lies; they don’t break their pledges; they don’t promise what they can’t do.

Surely, this is not something IK is striving for or he would like to happen to his country. And only he can steer it back from the brink. At the moment no one has the power to bring the situation back to normal in a peaceful and constitutional way, except him. Not the government, nor the Parliament, nor the political parties put together or even the army has that magic key to open all those doors that, at the moment, appear permanently closed on a political and constitutional solution to the prevailing turmoil. Ironic it may seem, but this is what the situation on the ground is. Now, it is for him to listen to the clarion call of the situation, rise above and defuse the crisis. Or we all may be condemned to yet another cleansing phase in which everything good and bad may be washed away, including Imran Khan himself.

And in case something bad happens, revenge will not be taken from those who have engineered all this but from the current political dispensation called the ‘system’ that never was ‘alone’ responsible for all the evil in the society but which will be crucified, nonetheless, for the blunders of a man who believed till his very end he was fighting to improve and reform it.