The Great Game in the Arctic

Owing to global warming, it’s a race for frozen treasures

“Throughout human history, mankind has raced to discover the next frontier. And time after time, discovery was swiftly followed by conflict. We cannot erase this history. But we can assure that history does not repeat itself in the Arctic.”

–US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel

Since China declared its new air defense identification zone over a chain of disputed islands in East China Sea, the region has been tense. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the public protests continued as Senator McCain spoke to a rally there over the weekend suggesting why a European Union agreement would be better for the country. And an Uzbek delegation traveled to US last week to discuss the post 2014 security environment in the Central Asian region and concerns over the growing Russian pressure.

But no less significant events are also taking place in the Arctic, the new frontier. There, Canada and Russia seems to be squaring up in the world’s most frigid and inhabitable corners. The slow moving Antarctic great game suddenly picked up pace with the announcement made on December 9 by the Canadian Foreign Minister, John Baird. He stated that the nation’s scientists are preparing a submission to the UN for acquiring the North Pole and the Lomonosov Ridge – the undersea mountain range equally claimed by the Russian Federation. “What we want to do is claim the biggest geographic area possible for Canada,” John Baird told reporters.

Putin responded swiftly declaring that in response to the Canadian assertion, Russia will be significantly increasing its military presence and will place two brigades in the region, reversing its previous policy. Speaking at the Defense Ministry Board, he thanked the Russian forces for completing the military base in Novosibirsk Islands, deeming it vital for the control of Arctic region. He added the formation of new military forces for the Arctic would be completed by 2014, including building of several airstrips. During the speech, Putin also laid out the other strategic considerations.

“Armed confrontations persist in some countries of the Middle East. The international forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 may complicate the situation in that country and even create a sizable area of instability in the adjoining Central Asian states, which directly concerns the national interests of Russia, our security,” Putin commented.

The situation has been building up gradually. Just last month, in November, the US announced its Arctic strategy by declaring it will assert its sovereignty “in and around Alaska.” The US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel had alarmed recently that while tensions are likely to escalate as a result of energy exploration, nations must work together to prevent potential conflicts. “Throughout human history, mankind has raced to discover the next frontier. And time after time, discovery was swiftly followed by conflict. We cannot erase this history. But we can assure that history does not repeat itself in the Arctic.”

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‘Some experts claim the costs of exploiting the resources of Arctic are too high and this would prevent further degradation of the environment. Others assert technological breakthroughs can quickly change the equation.’

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As a consequence of global warming, melting of giant glaciers continues in the Arctic region while exposing previously unreachable precious resources. This is causing the Arctic Council countries and other nations to post claims to various parts for exploration of energy resources while expanding their use of new waterways for military exercises and transit. According to US Geological Survey, 15 percent of the globe’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its natural gas may lie in the polar region, beneath its melting icebergs.

The Arctic Council was created in 1996 with Canada, Russia, US, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, and Finland as its permanent members. With facilitation from the US, in May this year the nations of India, China, Italy, Japan, Singapore and South Korea were granted an observer status. While the Council was initially set up premised more on environmental issues and protecting indigenous people spread throughout the region, it is quickly morphing into one focused on political and economic priorities.

Consider this for example: the Indian observer status to the Council would not have been possible without the active support of Norway. In an interview given to NDTV, Norwegian Foreign Minister, Espen Barth Eide, stated, “India is playing an important role in climate discussions. The climate binds us together, whether you live in the Himalayas or here, the climate binds us and it is changing.” Mr. Edie added that India and Norwegian cooperation will benefit not only in the arena of research but will also deepen economic relations.

On the other hand, India’s lead scientist at its Arctic research lab ‘Himadri,’ Manish Tewari commented, ‘what happens here has a direct bearing on the monsoon and countries like India.’

Obviously, what alters the monsoon rains directly impacts Pakistan as well. Scientists have detected a correlation between the weather in the Arctic and the intensity of monsoons in South Asia, which in turn influences the agriculture produce. Moreover, the Indian scientist believes that melting of Arctic glaciers will result in rise of sea levels with the risk of flooding large parts of India. These are some of the reasons why track two water dialogue between Pakistan and India is so critical. According to the website of Pakistan’s Institute of Oceanography, the nation maintains two summer research stations and one weather observatory in the Antarctica, and is planning to establish a permanent base.

In the same NDTV interview referred above, Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid dispelled the notion India was seeking to get involved in the Arctic Great Game because of its energy resources. As in Afghanistan, India, like other global powers, is increasingly extending its reach and getting adept at integrating environmental, political, and economic interests around the globe.

Some experts claim the costs of exploiting the resources of Arctic are too high and this would prevent further degradation of the environment. Others assert technological breakthroughs can quickly change the equation. Whatever the case, one thing is clear; exploration, industrial activity, and any military conflict in the Arctic, will lead to more climatic calamities around the globe.

Arif Ansar is chief analyst at PoliTact, a Washington-based futurist advisory firm (www.PoliTact.com). He can be reached at: [email protected], and on Twitter at: @ArifAnsar.