The arrival of conservatives

Implications for Pakistan’s foreign policy

In the last week’s column, it was noted that while extensive focus is on who might win the upcoming elections; little attention has gone towards if governance will be any better afterwards. The domestic politicking and economy should obviously be the primary concern of voters to decide on their preference. However, it is also important to study if election results will have implications for Pakistan’s foreign policy. The assessment may reveal the conservatives are what Pakistan needs at the present time.

The domestic environment and foreign affairs of a nation are obviously linked, and one impacts the other. Consider the following example: while international relations may not have been as much of a factor in the recent American elections, the outcome certainly is influencing its defence and foreign policy. The principal manifestations of this change were the appointments of Chuck Hagel and John Kerry. The new approach in US policy is a direct result of the economic challenges the super power is presently inflicted with.

In case of Pakistan, this interlink is even starker. For more than a decade the country has been fighting the war against extremists and assisting NATO forces in Afghanistan, to take on the perpetrators of 9/11. This has brought upon unique costs and challenges for the country, such as the arrested economy, worsening law and order situation, and acute energy shortages. Not an environment in which local or foreign investment would flourish. Moreover, the war has distracted the civilian government from governance and has perhaps provided opportunities for corruption. The influence of this single factor, war against terror, is hefty enough that it could very well determine the direction of Pakistan’s elections, just as it did in 2008.

This past week PoliTact issued a risk assessment, which evaluates the impact of the threat issued by TTP to the candidates of PPP, MQM, and ANP. The TTP alerted the contenders that they would be targeted and forewarned people to stay away from political activities and gatherings linked to these parties. From early signs TTP intends to deliver on these threats.

Pakistan’s military is certainly not taking the threat lightly. Reportedly the operations being carried on in Khyber and Orakzai Agencies, including those in Karachi, are directly linked with preempting any serious attempts by TTP to disrupt the elections. It should be noted, in the period leading up to the last elections, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007 allegedly carried out by Baitullah Mehsud, swung the sympathy vote in favour of PPP.

While TTP might fail once more from stopping the elections altogether, it can still impact the election results. One of the major implications TTP can impose this time; will be to scare the liberal vote away. This will by default benefit the conservative, nationalist and religious elements in the coming elections. And, consequentially, this may also influence the dynamics of political reconciliation in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s ties with India, Iran and the US.

This connection and potential outcome has already put Pakistan Muslim League-N, one of the leading conservative contenders in Pakistan’s elections, under considerable pressure. PML-N is known to carry sympathy towards pro-Taliban groups and other jihadi organisations. On Friday, the party announced that as part of a policy shift, the party has already started to distance itself from such groups. PML-N instead wants to create a more liberal perception. Obviously, the party is aware that its traditional posture is unsustainable in Western capitals.

Irrespective of the face-lift, if PML-N is able to form the future government, what would be the consequences of this for the Afghan reconciliation and Pakistan’s ties with US, Iran, India, and the Gulf States? PML-N is known to maintain close ties with Saudi Arabia, where its leadership was exiled during Musharraf’s reign. Due to ties with the jihadi groups and ideologues, PML-N led government is in a unique position to play a prominent role in dealing with the Afghan reconciliation, much more than PPP has been able to. This is especially the case now since the winds have decisively shifted in favour of a political solution in Afghanistan. The point is further validated by the fact that in recent negotiations with the government, TTP had asked Nawaz Sharif to act as a guarantor. On the other hand, PPP and other coalition partners such as MQM and ANP, have mostly propagated dealing with the Taliban and other extremists using force.

As far as Pakistan ties with Iran are concerned, PNL-N has clarified that it would not oppose any project that benefits the people of Pakistan, including the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Nonetheless, this stance will likely put it at odds with Saudi Arabia, but its good ties might help develop some level of understanding.

Like PPP, PML-N also has a pro-trade approach with India, and its help in Afghan reconciliation will also further Pakistan’s ties with India and the US. While PPP has struggled with the issue of credibility and legitimacy, PML-N will not have to deal with such issues and this can speed up progress on the economic front. Although, a whole lot would ride on how it uses its leverage with the jihadi groups.

On the surface, it appears that PML-N and PTI are at odds with each other. Realistically, the two have more in common. As both parties approach the helm of power, more streamlining of their views on Taliban and jihadis are likely to occur. For example, Imran Khan recently admitted that some extremists would have to be dealt with force. Even if PTI decides to sit in the opposition after the elections, on these foreign policy matters it is likely to support PML-N more than opposing it. However, if PTI decides to stay in the opposition and liberal help is sought to form the government, stalemate and unstable government is likely to result with governance suffering once more.

The role of PTI thus may become paramount. Its decision to join the government or sit in the opposition could very well decide if paralysis is going to prevail or not. It is in this context the internal politics and foreign affairs of the country are completely connected.

The writer is chief analyst at PoliTact, a Washington based futurist advisory firm (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at [email protected]