A court decision in Italy has surprised many in scientific community – how come someone can predict with a precise degree of confidence that a major earthquake will or will not strike? We all know that despite enormous amount of scientific work, scientists are still unable to predict exact time and intensity of an earthquake even in an earthquake-prone area. Court found six local scientists guilty of misguiding the public that a major earthquake will not hit L’Aquila while a 6.3-magantitude tremor killed 309 people, April 6, 2009. These six scientists agreed that no major earthquake would hit the area but ruled out its impossibility. However, a city official coloured this as ‘out of danger’ signal for general public. Court convicted all seven (six scientists and one city official) of manslaughter and slapped a six-year jail term, they were also fined to the tune of € 7.8 million.
Apparently, the court has chosen a wrong party to punish for the shortcoming of others —- city officials and elected representatives were not touched who have failed to get the stringent building codes implemented in this Apennines region with numerous fault lines. If such a blame-shifting verdict is upheld in subsequent appeals in superior courts, then Italian court would be giving a wrong message to its scientific community: just don’t make any prediction, whether it’s good or bad, which may land you in jail with a charge of manslaughter. To save one’s skin, this attitude may not be limited to earthquakes only, but may impact other environmental forecasts, virus and disease spreading predictions as well.
MASOOD KHAN
Jubail, Saudi Arabia
