Status of Pakistani Spring

A lot has been written about what triggered the uprisings in the Arab world. The revolts continue to spread and there are questions if Pakistan is also susceptible. Views from leading experts on the subject were presented in an earlier column. At the time, most of them had discounted that there was a possibility of such a revolt in Pakistan, as the country already has a democratic system. However, as times have changed, the topic merits a fresh look.
As pointed out earlier, the politicians and the government are increasingly failing to represent the sentiments of the public, in fact the gap is widening. Moreover, there is a growing perception that the political leadership is not only distant from the public but lacks empathy for its plight. The state of affairs was well depicted recently when the staff of a polling booth quietly faced the wrath of Waheeda Shah. Furthermore, as a result of the secrets revealed by WikiLeaks and scandals such as the Memogate, the public and private dealings of the political and military leadership continue to be exposed while further hurting their credibility.
If this pattern continues, a point would be reached where the nation’s economic and foreign policies would become untenable. This is because there is neither a public buy-in for such policies nor has the government made any efforts to make a convincing case for them. This atmosphere generally leads to even more secrecy and cover-ups. The trust deficit that results causes the decision making to shift to only a few people. And, this trajectory ultimately results in a colossal debacle or a system failure.
Perhaps, recognising the growing risk, the policy review Pakistan initiated after the NATO Mohmand attack represents an effort to reorient its economic and foreign policy towards its national interests. However, the challenge is also to define the national interests in a fast changing world.
The first test to Pakistan’s reoriented economic and foreign policy appears to have already arrived in the form of Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project. The suspension of NATO’s Afghan supply line is another issue carrying serious implications. The IP project has taken on added attention and significance in the wake of US and EU sanctions on the export of oil from Iran and dealings with its Central Bank. A few weeks ago, Hina Rabanni Khar had assured Pakistan that sanctions on Iran do not cover the IP project. However, Hillary Clinton has herself clarified this misunderstanding.
Facing acute energy shortages, Pakistan is now confronted with a number of difficult choices on how to fulfil its future energy needs. It can obviously exploit its own resources, but according to experts, that is going to take some time. In a recent visit to Qatar, Prime Minister Gilani also expressed interest in importing 500 million cubic feet of LNG per day from Qatar to resolve the energy shortfall. The other options for the country include the IP gas pipeline and the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India (TAPI) project, the preferred choice of the US.
While the security situation of Afghanistan is a roadblock in implementing of TAPI project, the turmoil in Balochistan is widely perceived as an obstacle in the way of IP gas pipeline. Moreover, as Iran’s stand off with Israel and US worsens, many experts believe the situation in Balochistan is likely to follow suit.
It is this chokehold that may have played a role in convincing Pakistan not only to improve its trade relations with India but may also have given wind to rumours that Pakistan might attempt to link the IP pipeline to NATO Afghan supply line.
Under this conditionality, Pakistan would ask US for exempting the IP project from the sanctions, and in return, it would re-open the NATO Afghan supply line. Some South Asia experts in the US think that the timeline for the two issues were different and therefore linking them in such a way may not be correct. While the NATO supply line is an immediate issue, the IP project was a longer-term challenge. However, in Pakistan, the connection may be perceived differently. Over the years, the country has allowed NATO supplies to continue even at immense cost to itself. And thus, lacking a viable energy alternative, Pakistan may ask US for a similar gesture in the forms of IP gas pipeline exemption.
Nonetheless, the energy crisis has become a crucial test for the government in Pakistan to prove that it’s working in the interest of the people. An economically drowning country can never make a convincing case, even if it tried, that fighting the war against terror is more important than providing opportunities for bread and butter. Besides, a poverty stricken country would become an easy prey for extremists. And, if this logic is not understood, the spring in Pakistan is probably well on its way.

The writer is the chief analyst for PoliTact (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at [email protected]