PoliTact has been writing consistently on the evolving Persian-Arab tussles, and the theme was also a prominent focus of the forecast for 2012. Meanwhile, the centre of attention of the West has remained fixated on Pakistan’s role in the context of its ties with Afghanistan, India and China. This is turn has also influenced Pakistan’s foreign policy thinking. However, it is increasingly clear that the matters related to the Middle East, more specifically the Iran crisis, will determine the future of not only the Afghan reconciliation but also Pakistan’s relations with other countries.
For the most part, western scholars have not tried to understand how the Iran crisis could impact the Afghan reconciliation. The first reference in this regards seems to have been made by the former national security advisor of US and renowned geopolitical strategist, Zbigniew Brzezinski. In a recent talk, he specifically mentioned that if Iran crisis develops into a full-blown conflict, Afghan reconciliation would be seriously dented. PoliTact recently interviewed two other scholars of the region, Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation and Dr Marvin Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute. Lisa affirmed that Afghan reconciliation would be impacted by the Iranian crisis but was not sure about the magnitude; however, Dr Weinbaum backed Brzezinski’s assertion, while also admiring his genius.
To make matter worse, Iran also appears to be missing from the fluid Afghan settlement. Most of the discussion in this regard has focused on Taliban, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The missing Iranian component may have been due to the focus of American strategy for the region. The US would ideally like to deal with Afghan reconciliation first, and then to shift focus to Iran. And letting sanctions and efforts towards regime change in Syria pile up the pressure on the Iranians. However, from the Israeli perspective, this approach has not been convincing enough and the country is fast running out of patience. The reality is that the events related to both Iran and Afghan crises have been occurring simultaneously, not sequentially, and Iran appears to be taking over the Afghan crisis.
The escalating Iran situation has caught India and Pakistan by surprise. Both countries are now balancing their ties between the US and European backed Gulf monarchs on the one hand, and the Iranian regime on the other. The US-EU sanctions on Iranian oil export and the recent UN Security Council resolution on Syria lays out this divide more prominently. India and Pakistan voted in favour of the Arab League supported resolution on Syria; however, both countries have pledged to continue their energy and trade dealings with Iran despite western sanctions.
The dilemma for India is even greater than Pakistan as it has strategic relations with Israel, EU and the US. In a recent the Indian Express article, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi C Raja Mohan addresses India’s problematic approach to Middle Eastern politics:
“The problems for India’s Middle East policy emerged when the regional and internal contradictions began to acquire a salience all their own. If India was flummoxed by the shifting regional coalitions, it was utterly unprepared for internal strife in the Arab states and its external consequences.”
The same can be said for Pakistan. Any question related to its foreign policy is being ducked under one standard comment that the policy review the country had initiated after the November NATO Mohmand attack will provide the needed direction. Though, in recent days, comments made by Pakistan’s civilian leadership have provided clues on Pakistan’s implied policy on Iran.
In an interview to The Sun, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Britain stated that if Israel attacks Iran, Pakistan would be left with no option but to support Iran. Wajid Shamsul Hasan commented, “We wouldn’t like to be seen as part of Israel’s campaign against any country. If Israel attacks Iran, it will have an impact on Pakistan as well.” Pakistan faces a much more serious challenge, as these tensions between Iran and Gulf countries have the tendency to take on Shiite versus Sunni colour. “We will have to safeguard our own interests. We also have a Shia population in Pakistan who will not take it lying down,” the High Commissioner added.
Moreover, during the recently held tripartite meeting in Islamabad, President Zardari has commented that Pakistan and Iran “need each other and no foreign pressure should hinder their ties.” He also added that in case the US attacks Iran, Pakistan would not be providing any support to the US.
While Afghan conflict has consumed people’s attentions for more than a decade, the scope of Iran and Syrian crisis is much wider. Any realistic assessment of the situation in South Asia would have to envision what happens in Afghanistan, and the region, once the Middle East comes to a boil. Not doing so will only lead to more surprises.
The writer is the chief analyst for PoliTact (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at [email protected]
