Civilians have whip-hand in showdown with military

For decades, generals only had to pick up a phone and order the removal of anyone in the civilian government who had crossed them. It’s not so simple anymore, as the army is finding out in its latest battle with President Asif Ali Zardari.
Despite the numerous crises hounding Zardari’s government, the civilians for once hold the most cards in the non-stop bluffing game that defines Pakistani politics, giving it the confidence to stare down the powerful military, its political opponents and perhaps even the Supreme Court.
For months, pundits have been predicting the downfall of President Zardari. Zardari has never been popular. He has never shaken off his nickname – “Mr. 10 Percent”. Nor does he have many friends in the military. But now, army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and his generals find themselves in a position of political isolation, and it is this that may have led to the army’s uncharacteristic restraint.
“Unless the situation is totally out of control, he (Kayani) does not want to intervene,” said Shauqat Qadir, a retired brigadier and military analyst. “There’s always a couple of guys who say, ‘Let’s do this, how long are you going to take this?’, but the rest of the commanders will say to take it easy.”
For all the headlines about the prospect of another coup, then, an army takeover looks unlikely any time soon.
“They (Zardari and his allies) are on the offensive, because they think they have the upper hand,” said Rifaat Hussain, a professor at the Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad.

“MEMOGATE”
The latest dispute with the military is over an unsigned memo sent in the wake of the unilateral U.S. commando raid that killed Osama bin Laden last year.
The memo, allegedly drafted on the direction of former ambassador to Washington Husain Haqqani, asked for U.S. help in reining in the army, which the memo said was planning a coup.
When an American businessman revealed his role in writing and delivering the memo, Haqqani was forced to resign, and “memogate” locked Zardari and the military in trench warfare ever since.
This week, Prime Minister Gilani fired the defense secretary, who was seen as Kayani’s man in the bureaucracy. It was a brazen provocation, and yet the army responded with a stern press release, whereas in the past it would have sent troops in to take control.
Many saw this as a recognition by the military that it no longer has enough political support for a coup.
“They can take over, they have the capacity to take over,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst. “But they will find it extremely difficult to sustain power. That’s the basic challenge for them.”
Few generals want to repeat the mistakes made by Pakistan’s last coup leader, Pervez Musharraf, who resigned as president in 2008.
The military will also be reluctant to assume responsibility for a host of problems that range from a tottering economy, widespread poverty and power shortages that would open it up to further public criticism.
Furthermore, any military government would face international sanctions: its ties with Washington are already at their lowest ebb, and a coup would make it worse.

ZARDARI’S BET
President Zardari may have concluded that – given all this – the military will not have the stomach for another coup and is now daring the generals to make a move, betting that the civilians will win the showdown.
Close aides say Zardari wants to be remembered as the leader who worked harder than any other to promote civilian rule in Pakistan and loosen the military’s hold on power.
Zardari is “stubborn and headstrong with a strong sense of street politics”, said a senior member of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). “And he has a desire for a legacy as the man who finally got the ballot box to prevail.”
No civilian government has ever served out its full five-year term in Pakistan, but Zardari’s government might just do it. The next general election is due by 2013, and legislators will elect a new president, a largely ceremonial post, after that poll.
But if the military is constrained, what about the Supreme Court, which is his next biggest threat?
As an opponent of the Musharraf regime, Zardari had multiple cases of corruption and even murder lodged against him, all of which he says are false and politically motivated.
He swept to power in a sympathy vote after his wife’s assassination, but an amnesty deal that protected him from prosecution was nullified in 2009 and now he is fighting for his political survival with the judiciary as well as the army.
This week, the courts threatened to disqualify Zardari ally Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani for office or even urge the impeachment of the president if the government didn’t re-open corruption charges against him. The government says it won’t take up the graft charges again because, as head of state, Zardari enjoys immunity.
Gilani could well be dismissed, party members say, but he is just one member of the national assembly. The PPP-led coalition government could elect another prime minister and muddle through the ensuing controversy.
Impeaching Zardari would be problematic, however. It takes a two-thirds majority of parliament to do so, and the opposition — most of which oppose a military takeover — would be hard pressed to marshal that.
So with these curbs on the military and the judiciary, the civilian government has the whip-hand for perhaps the first time in Pakistan’s history.