Looking ahead
In my previous columns, I have been presenting the emerging geopolitical patterns in various regions. Now that we are at the end of the year, the challenge is to determine which one of these trends are going to be most critical in shaping the future of Pakistan. There are two opposing views in this regard; some think the internal variables are more important, while others give more weight to the external influences. Historically speaking, it’s the change in the international environment that has been more consequential. PoliTact recently released its initial GIPSEE (Global Intelligence, Political, Security, and Economic Estimate) Geopolitical Forecast, and following is a list of 10 leading interconnected observations.
1. Many in Pakistan, and around the world, have gotten used to thinking about the emerging world with the nation-state mindset. However, this classification increasingly appears moot in dealing with patterns that operate across borders. Consider for example the War Against Terror, while the US and terrorists have waged a war across borders, the states of these regions are under tremendous stress and the irredentist claims are resurging. The war against extremists has overtime merged with the goal of containing adversaries. Use of Afghanistan for sending spying drones over Iran, is a case in point.
2. In the post Osama environment, the US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan does not imply any reversal of policy, instead, a change in tactics towards a smaller and smarter footprint and a drift of the front to North Africa, where it is mixing up with the dynamics created by the Arab Spring.
3. 9/11 has assisted in altering how the threats to security were traditionally perceived in the Middle East and South Asia. In the Arab world, the risk has shifted away from Israel and towards Iran, the extremists, and its disgruntled populace. While in the case of Pakistan, it has moved away from India and towards the Taliban and Kashmiri Jihadist. The tensions between the old and the new security paradigms would continue to complicate the conduct of international relations and internal politics of these countries.
4. Another trend has to do with the broader premise that economic cooperation can eventually ease security concerns and lead to conflict resolution. On the contrary, the security and nationalistic concerns are domineering over the benefits that economic cooperation may offer, as is being witnessed in Asia Pacific and Europe. This trend will likely complicate the Pakistan-India détente and Afghanistan-Pakistan-India trade relations while denting Pakistan’s commercial prospects.
5. As a general rule, the emerging powers usually like to wait and see how events unfold but the established powers often do not have the liberty of time. This means that NATO and the US are likely to take on a more aggressive and confrontational stance towards Russia and China. In the AfPak region, this posture could hasten Pakistan’s drift away from NATO and into the arms of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is considered by many to be the security arm of BRICS. However, this position does put the onus on China i.e., if it wants to confront, or allow US to carry on unimpeded.
6. For the first time since the end of Cold War, a fundamental shift is taking place in Europe. These changes not only include the decline of European Union, but also the rise of Germany and the resurgence of Russia. Moreover, the Germans and the Russians are also moving closer to each other.
This makes the French, British, and other European countries uneasy and causes them to look towards the US to counter balance. However, due to the economic weakness of the US, these Europeans are also for the first time also seeking Chinese assistance. This would have far reaching consequences on other regions.
7. In the chaos that has resulted from the Arab Spring, the European powers appear to be establishing their zones of influence in North Africa and Middle East. And as they do, the nation-states structures are weakening. While the UK and France have been more active in Libya and Syria, in AfPak, we could see the Germans, becoming more active. The Germans are, for example, actively involved in facilitating the Afghan reconciliation process and in talks with the Taliban.
8. More than any other factor, how Israel thinks about its national security, will determine the future direction of the Middle East. As the Arab Spring unfolds, Israel is seriously concerned about Islamists gaining influence, for example, in places like Egypt. Israel’s goal will be to prevent any cooperation to develop between Islamists from different countries, or an alliance to be formed between states that can threaten Israel. One of the main goals of Israel would be to keep the rage of the Arab street turning toward the Jewish state, and it would employ all possible counter measures towards this end.
For example Iran, Pakistan and Turkey, were beginning to edge closer to one another through developing trade relations. However, the Israel and Western emphasis on Iran’s nuclear program and Turkey’s stand against Syria has complicated Iran-Turkey relations, and this will also harm the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project.
9. The most important determinant of the future of Afghanistan will be the flux in the balance of power of the Middle East, between the Turks, Arabs and the Persians. In the long run, it would be the situation of Middle East that would determine if the Afghan solution is going to be a durable one. Historically, whichever Islamic power dominates in the Middle East, it also exerts influence in the rest of Islamic world. Presently, the sway of Sunni Wahabi monarchs is on the decline while the Sunni Turks and the Shiite Iran are resurgent. In this tussle, the Turks and the Gulf monarchs both enjoy Western backing while the Iranians do not. On the other hand, both the Turks and the Iranians are not threatened by Arab Spring style uprisings at the moment, like the Arabs.
The crisis over Iran’s nuclear program is likely to come to a boil next year. In this context, the most important scenario to visualise is the trajectory of events in the South and Central Asia, when and if this occurs.
10. It’s the Afghan reconciliation that would have the most significant impact on the politics and future of Pakistan, and its relations with US and other Western nations. For the first time, it’s the Pak-US military-to-military ties that are not going well. As US attempts to manage the influence of Pakistan in Afghanistan, American dependence on Pakistan’s politicians has increased. To counter this, Pakistan would focus on bringing the civil and military sides on the same page.
Although the Afghan reconciliation has picked up considerable pace in recent days, a viable political solution to the quagmire there would have to involve the regional stakeholders. The situation of Iraq provides significant clues on what can be expected in Afghanistan, once the US withdraws.
The writer is the chief analyst for PoliTact (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at [email protected].
