Political storm brewing?

A storm is currently being whipped up in the always simmering pot of Pakistan’s politics. And in the eye of the storm are the politicians who are tearing at each other’s throats and the very fabric of the country while swearing hand over heart how dearly they held the sovereignty of the parliament of which they are a part. But the reality is otherwise: it is they who are undermining it by word and deed, day in, day out.
Amidst all this, the ghost of the ‘memo’ is playing its own tricks, and by now, if nothing else, it definitely has claimed the scalp of the military establishment’s long-time nemesis, our man in Washington. The ‘memo’, it appears prima facie, was written by the man the establishment loved to hate with no qualms about concealing it. Since when is not known, but apparently since the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Bill attempted to contain the military’s intervention in political affairs had riled the army. The inspiration behind those clauses, so the powers-that-be thought, had come from Hussain Haqqani (from past record, one has to concede, a master at the art of subterfuge) who was promptly dubbed America’s ambassador under our banner.
Was he the lone ranger or was he prompted by the highest office in the country is still in question. The jury may remain out on it for some time, but does it really matter?
Pakistani leaders of all hues (Zulfikar Ali Bhutto being the only honourable exception but then he was one of a kind in so many ways) have always flaunted their being in cahoots with the United States, wearing it almost like a badge of honour, if not of courage. And seeking the blessings of Washington and Langley in troubled times has been the norm, and once the moment faded away, it only became a footnote in our chequered history.
Why should it be treated any differently this time round, for some to dub it even as treason? Or does it raise the hackles of the army hierarchy, as its chief mentioned, because the relationship with the US is of late on a different keel? Or the leading lights of the establishment perhaps have this pronounced feeling of betrayal because the endeavour was made to subdue the army further when it already stood humiliated in the post-Bin Laden capture-and-killing period. Hence the sharpening of the knives and the clamour for blood, of the messenger variety in this case.
And that is where the buck is likely to stop. If it were propitious, everyone involved would have been shoved aside. Indeed, the whole venture may have wrapped up. But the times are different. Neither the milieu at home nor the geopolitical conditions allow such an adventure. Post Lahore rally, with his standard now flying high, even Imran Khan has ruled out support for an extra-judicial setup. The establishment’s favourite party from the South has already had its wings clipped, and with its image in the gutter since that fateful afternoon on May 12 2007 and the bloody events that unfolded since, in order to rehabilitate its credentials it too cannot reiterate its call to the ‘patriotic generals’.
So, unless something dramatic pops up, a rather tame ending to the ‘memo’ saga seems to be on the cards.
And to those who were busy painting the departure scenario for the PPP government, promising it a ‘winter of discontent’, Firdous Ashiq Awan has a most succinct one-liner. “Constitutionally you do not have the means to send us packing and a coup is not likely to happen”.
This may correctly reflect that feeling of overconfidence in the PPP’s inner sanctum even after the anticipated departure of Shah Mahmood Qureshi, with more likely to be weaned away owing to genuine antipathy with the current leadership or out of sheer caprice. Having survived for this long in the face of dire predictions from day one, and having seen through so many desertions from 1970s to this day, with the PPP somehow remaining intact, should imbue it with such self-belief.
And despite its sins of omission and commission, the situation on the ground points to the PPP’s electoral unassailability. Whether it emerges as the single party at the centre again is unlikely, but if the obverse happens, it still would not be reduced to the miniscule 19 seats in the manufactured heavy mandate of 1990. Rigging elections and tampering with the results with impunity is no longer possible.
That is why, whatever the PML(N)’s public posture, the Senate elections in March and the possibility of the PPP cornering enough seats to give it a majority is the real motivation behind the bogey of en masse resignations.

The writer is Sports and Magazines Editor, Pakistan Today.