The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s Marine Meteorology and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Karachi in its advisory issued on Friday claimed that none of the areas along the Pakistani coast are under threat from a cyclone since the chances of the tropical depression in the northeast Arabian Sea turning into a cyclone are “meagre at present.”
The advisories being issued in the past four days have been contradictory: in its first advisory issued on June 6, it stated that a tropical cyclone was in the process of formation, and warned that it will hit Sindh and Balochistan. Later on, the warning centre claimed that the depression was not turning into a cyclone, but the very next days and then for two days, issued a statement claiming that the chances of the depression turning into a tropical cyclone were “likely to intensify.”
This confusion, however, has been costly for at least 500,000 underprivileged residents from the coastal localities of Thatta: many have abandoned their homes and move to northwards to safer localities in the district. Many panicked residents, already reeling from the devastation of last year’s floods, sold their livestock and other valuables to afford transportation to safer areas, and are now unable to return. Memories of the tropical cyclone of 1999 are also still fresh, while the drying up of the Indus delta after reduced flows in downstream Kotri, sea intrusion and climate change have pushed a majority of them into the throes of extreme poverty.
When Pakistan Today contacted chief meteorologist in Karachi, Naeem Shah, he admitted that all seven advisories his department had thus far had proved incorrect. “But this is not our fault, as whatever advisory we issue is for that day alone. The next day, we check the current status, and issue an advisory accordingly. People must keep an eye out for these advisories regularly in order to keep themselves updated,” he argued.
On the other hand, Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum (PFF) chief Muhammad Ali Shah told Pakistan Today that the more pertinent issue at hand is of rescue operations being carried out in a timely fashion. “With climate change and global warming, we know that cyclones will hit Sindh and Balochistan coasts in future. But rescue activities need to be coordinated as well. Even though the Met Office’s cyclone forecasting is confusing, what if a cyclone really hits the coast? Where will the coastal population be taken? In Ibrahim Hyderi alone, there are 100,000 residents. Where will they be taken?” he asked.
