This is with reference to the column The more serious issue in which the author has cited the US senate report to point towards the fact that the Indian ability to use the cumulative power of 33 dams that are at various stages of completion may provide a detrimental blow to Pakistan by reducing its access to water, especially in the growing season.
Pakistans economy that is based primarily on its agricultural produce is inextricably linked to the water supply and any fluctuation during the crucial period would obviously lead to dire socio-economic crisis that Pakistan can ill afford.
The report on Avoiding Water Wars in south and central Asia also states that so far the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 between the two countries has been able to maintain peace and harmony while simultaneously questioning its validity as the climatic changes coupled with an increased demand on part of both the countries may change the prevalent trends. This can be exemplified by the fact that lately some projects undertaken by India in occupied territory of Jammu and Kashmir from where the western rivers flow into Pakistan have become major irritants and raised serious concerns for Pakistan.
Also, there are the controversial hydropower projects at Chutak and Nimoo-Bazgo, that are grossly violating the IWT as they have not been cleared by Pakistan, according to a news report.
Also, keeping in view the gross climatic changes that are predicted to alter the monsoon circulation in South Asia towards an eastward shift, an increase or decrease in rainfall may cause great harm to the security environment as well. Moreover, the global warming has led to melting of the Himalayan glaciers and consequent depletion in the flow of water into the Indus River system, a trend that is likely to continue with rising temperatures.
It needs to be realised by both countries, however, that they are liable to be affected by the slightest climatic change. In this backdrop the treaty needs to be reviewed with bilateral consent to clarify any discrepancies to converge towards a common interest as both Pakistan and India feel that this issue needs to be settled amicably between them. Pakistani authorities ought to wake up from their slumber to exercise their political will at both national and international level and to reverse the oppression it faces due to internal disorganisations and disharmonies.
AYAANA MALIK
Islamabad
