The winds of change are blowing across Egypt where the air had become stale as a result of the 30-year long autocratic rule of Hosni Mubarak.
There were apparently plans afoot to continue the legacy in the form of the younger Mubarak, in keeping with the trend of many other autocratic regimes, like Syria and North Korea, not to mention our own South Asian democracies.
The people on the streets of the Egypt have expressed their will, but the Western supporters of the regime are apparently divided as to which way to go. They seem to be sitting on the wall. However, their apparent answer is formulated by the Wests point man on the Middle East, Tony Blair in the form of managed transition which probably means face changes in the regime, otherwise the same party, with some limited reforms.
The problem of the West is that it wants a stable Egypt which is friendly towards them and their interests in the region, which for the West hinges upon Egypts friendship, albeit functional only, with Israel, and to secure oil supplies.
The interests of the people of Egypt, however, seem to conflict with the continuation of the current regime. They want all the fundamental freedoms that the West holds dear. But apparently, when reality meets idealism, reality triumphs; here we have the obvious lip service to democracy and at the same time realpolitik demands adherence to having more of the same.
In short, it is not the interest of the Egyptians but the larger political game; regional security, uninterrupted supply of oil, which is paramount. Therein lies the problem, how to keep the status quo, minus Mubarak. They are afraid of unleashing democratic forces, lest they find expression in political empowerment of groups the West considers inimical to its interest.
How to keep the status quo, minus Mubarak, but at the same time appear to be upholding the principles of democracy is the main issue for them now.
AHMAD NAZIR WARRAICH
Lahore
