–Ruling PTI strives for an upset in NA-124
–Neck-and-neck contest anticipated between Saad Rafique, Humayun Akhtar in NA-131
–PP-64, PP-65 appear to be easy sailings for PML-N
LAHORE: The by-election battle in Lahore between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) has boiled down to the NA-131 constituency, where both the parties are going to give each other a run for their money.
Despite PTI being the incumbents in both Punjab and the centre, PML-N looks set to once again win their three traditional seats and give a tough time to the ruling party in the one constituency that they won back in July.
Four seats from Lahore are up for grabs today as the voters of NA-131, NA-124, PP-64 and PP-65 will head to the polling stations once again to elect new representatives after the previous ones vacated their seats.
The by-polls are significant as they will likely bring back to parliament former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who is contesting for NA-124, and might send the PTI’s already precarious numbers in Punjab a little bit towards the edge.
Meanwhile, PTI will be looking to retain NA-131, the Lahore seat which its chairman and now Prime Minister Imran Khan won by a mere 680 votes.
NA 124: THE LION’S DEN
It is a testament to the strength of the League in NA-124 that their candidate for the by-election is not even from Lahore, let alone from the constituency. Former premier Shahid Khaqan Abbasi won his first National Assembly election from a Rawalpindi (Muree) constituency back in 1988 as an independent candidate and has been coming to the parliament on that seat ever since.
And while Abbasi has been in Lahore quite often in recent days, it has not been to get to know his new constituents. The embattled former PM has had his hands full with the treason case currently being heard against him in the Lahore High Court (LHC) and his campaign is being run by League loyalists and Hamza Shehbaz’s goodwill in the area. While this may seem like very little, it is enough to have the PTI nearly hopeless regarding NA-124.
“We have been campaigning hard and are doing our best to mobilise the people and try to get an upset,” Ghulam Moheyudin Dewan, PTI’s candidate in the constituency, said while speaking to media.
It would be unfair to say that PTI has no support in NA-124. Their candidate for the July 25 elections, Nauman Qaiser, had secured nearly 81,000 votes. Yet the support paled in comparison to Hamza Shehbaz, who sailed through the election with nearly 150,000 votes to his name.
And while Dewan is putting up a brave face in front of the media and his supporters, he is in no illusions as to his position in NA-124.
That the PTI is in dire straits in the area is clear even to the party. While Dewan is a noted local figure and a sitting member of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, his own party seems less than interested in his electioneering.
“The response from our own party towards this election has been very disappointing,” his campaign managers told Pakistan Today.
Even though Dewan once again tries to save face by saying that the matter is settled, he has not denied reports that in a meeting with PM Khan, he lodged complaints regarding the indifferent attitude of the provincial government and ministers regarding the party’s faith in the constituency.
With such odds stacked against him, Ghulam Moheyuding Dewan seems fated to fall before the might of the League in NA-124, and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi looks slated to become another former prime minister sitting in the National Assembly.
NA 131: TROUBLE IN PARADISE?
With Imran Khan out of the picture, it seemed that Saad Rafique would breeze through NA-131 in the by-elections. There had only been a difference of 680 votes between him and Imran Khan back in July, and Saad Rafique seemed to have more goodwill in the constituency than any politician the PTI could hope to put up.
His likely contender was going to be Waleed Iqbal, an old PTI hand and the grandson of Allama Iqbal. Yet Rafique was not out of the doldrums just yet. Already dogged by NAB, it was soon revealed that Waleed Iqbal was being sidelined for a much more formidable candidate in the shape of Humayun Akhtar Khan.
A veteran politician, Humayun Akhtar had joined the PTI a mere week before the election. A familiar face in this particular constituency, many in the area felt that the final swing that tipped Imran Khan over the finishing line was the support that Humayun Akhtar brought with him.
“I have a 25-year history with this constituency. 95% of the development work that took place here took place under my watch,” Humayun Akhtar has said.
And indeed, back in his League days, he showed some real steel by defeating Ahsan Iqbal in NA-93 back in the 1993 election when it was still known as the “Larkana of Lahore”.
One of the major complaints that Saad Rafique has is the alleged gerrymandering of his constituency, in which he claims many rural strongholds of the League have been cut away.
“Still, if one-fourth of the voters in this constituency are from posh areas like defence, the remaining three-fourths are from the middle, working class middle income voters that have their loyalties with us and the League” he has claimed.
Yet Humayun Akhtar seems undaunted by what is supposed to be the class divide between the PTI and PML-N.
“I am a voter-friendly person. My slogan is voter ko izzat doh, and not ‘vote ko izzat doh’. People remember the work we have done on roads and development in this constituency and they will vote for me.”
There is little love lost between Khawaja Saad Rafique and Humayun Akhtar.
Akhtar calls him rude and corrupt, accusing Rafique of having vested interests in the constituency, saying that voters do not appreciate that their prospect MNA might soon go to jail while Khawaja Saad refers to Humayun Akhtar as a turncoat.
“I don’t see how I am a turncoat. I am the one that opened this constituency for the League back in the 90s. And even in 2013, my faction of the PML-Q had simply allied with the PML-N not merged,” Akhtar has said.
Meanwhile, Khawaja Saad claims that everyone knows the reality of what NAB is and is not doing and who they are and are not targeting.
With tensions high and already some reports of violence during the campaign, the fate of NA-131 is delicately poised, but it would seem that Humayun Akhtar has the edge for now.
PP 64 & 65:
Much like NA-124, PP-64 and PP-65 seem to be easy sailings for the PML-N. Both seats were vacated by PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif. For the by-elections, the party has awarded ticket to Malik Saiful Maluk Khokhar in PP-164 and Sohail Shaukat Butt in PP-165. Both are experienced politicians and have deep roots in the respective constituency.
Malik Saiful Maluk Khokhar, who previously was twice elected for the Punjab Assembly, had lost the last election on NA seat to the PTI. Shaukat Sohail Butt was elected as a PML-N MNA in 2013 elections but in the last election, he was not awarded a ticket.
Meanwhile, against them, the PTI has awarded ticket to its previous candidate Yousaf in PP-164 and Mansha Sindhu in PP-165.
Mansha twice lost the election to Shehbaz Sharif for the NA seats.
While the competition seems tilted in the PML-N’s favour, Mansha Sindhu says that he feels the tide might turn because of Shehbaz Sharif’s arrest by NAB as it is showing the constituents the “true face of the Sharifs”.
