- Losers in 2018 elections
It must be a well-deserved catharsis for many a Pakistanis to see the big politicians being bashed on prime time and that too by the same people who have spent their lives fawning in front of the same political titans. While the candidates being announced brings relief to some politicians, some others end up branding the grapes as sour. For a debt-ridden nation with perpetually arising financial crises the legislative assemblies have kept their appeal and lure alive to the extent that many a veteran and young politicians would go to every length to catch a ride in this VIP lane. Those who do not get a party ticket to contest then open their mouths for hurling insult in any direction they please. The media outlets have their hands full with the breaking news and spicy onslaught of political masters brought on by their own sworn servants. Many people rightly feel relieved to see the rhetoric developing against political kings. It has to be soothing after years upon years of hardships, load-shedding and inflation inflicted upon them. But this is a temporary relief and one that shall bring no comfort but to the ears. Consciously or unconsciously, an inconvenient truth is being concealed in the popular media that the masses are sure to end up on the losing side in the next elections.
The dilapidated state of economy is ready to squeeze the deprived middle and lower middle class once more and is sure to put them further into the pit of poverty and hardships. When the smog settles after the hullabaloo of elections the reality may strike back at those who have been tuned in to the flashing screens of the maddening media. No matter who makes it to office, it is given that we have to once again go knocking at the door of IMF. The new agreement with International Monetary Fund must come with a lot of strings attached to it and most of us shall be all but trapped in those strings as always. Also, it is already on the cards that the fuel prices have to be adjusted upwards as the dwindling value of currency means we have to spend more to buy the same as before. On top of that, the international oil market is heating up in terms of prices. This also means that the electricity prices must also soon be due for a considerable increase.
A fantasy world being knitted is that the problems of the nation are somehow so miniscule that a sole chair in the judiciary can overcome them all. This is all a mirror image of another popular judicial movement which was supposed to bring out,” DHARTI HU GE MAA KE JAISI” (The land shall be like a mother) under Iftikhar Chaudhry. When it comes to economy little do the masses know that the judiciary has no control over the price of imported oil and other goods. At best a government may be forced to fix the prices or to remodel the pricing formulas of some commodities, but that shall only be a cosmetic relief. Such price formulas, in case of oil for example, can mean only one of two things if not both of them: The state shall receive less revenues or it shall incur more trade deficit as the consumption of oil should remain stable by artificial pricing while more dollars shall be depleted to buy this oil due to increase in international prices. In both these cases more internal or external debt shall be required and that will only mean further devaluation of the rupee. Hence under such cosmetic solutions the real face of economy shall keep getting uglier every day.
Majority of those who reach assemblies have monumental assets that should work as a hedge against inflation
If PTI is to lead the lower house with simple majority then the race shall be on to boost the internal debt so that money can be pumped in to stimulate the economy, true to the exaggerated claims made during the election campaign. Even more dangerous and yet a more likely scenario shall be where two or more political parties form a coalition government because in a patched up majority a competition shall begin for resources within the political parties. And hence to appease all the stakeholders the majority party in the coalition must increase the size of the pie to be divided. Again, this shall only mean more internal and external debt and further rupee devaluation. No shrine and no court can save the economy from being ruined once we keep kicking the can down the road and keep borrowing so that the house of cards keeps looking great.
The inflation we have seen is nothing compared to what is due after the next set of mighty are sworn in. Majority of those who reach assemblies have monumental assets that should work as a hedge against inflation. Actually our political masters might end up profiting due to rupee devaluation as in continuous inflationary environment the assets may outperform the devaluation incurred by the rupee; that is, if an additional hedge of foreign currencies and foreign investments at the disposal of our legislators is not even accounted for. Those who don’t have any assets to hedge against inflation shall be working the same hours for less and less. Government employees might get a fair or less than a fair share of increasing debt when a part of that debt shall be transferred to their pay-checks in the name of annual increments. The daily wage workers, small businesses and private sector employees shall be the worst hit and shall be bearing all the cost of past and future borrowing with their sweat and blood. The drama of elections is fun and the truth always too painful; but all dramas end somewhere while the truth regarding the economy is here to stay with us.
While most gamblers end up losing everything, a casino always makes a profit and this is summed up by a popular phrase that the house always wins. Similarly, our politicians are sitting comfortably no matter how the results turn in for elections. The losers are the ones who shall be lining up on a presumably hot day of July to cast their votes.
