Syria: a politico-economic affair

In the wake of escalating political violence and turmoil plaguing the Arab peninsula, economic and private trade sectors of the region feature at the receiving end of inexorable financial losses. The most recent outbreak of violent protests against Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, accompanied by a rapid outflow of Syrian refugees spilling into Turkey, has not simply exposed neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey to geopolitical risk, but has also adversely impacted the downwardly-spiralling economic conditions of the region. In light of the Syrian government’s aggressive military crackdown against anti-state protests (resulting in approximately 1,100 civilian deaths; Amnesty International), and a simultaneous inflow of roughly 5,000 Syrian refugees into Turkey (Reuters), the conflict which may have originated in the heart of the Syrian state has now rapidly evolved into an international political and economic concern.
Syria naturally bears the greatest brunt of the conflict – in a recent report published in The Washington Post, death of tourism in Syria is one of the most ‘visible’ indications of its economic downfall, with hotels and popular tourist locations being forced to shut down. According to the report, Syrian merchant classes, who have thus far remained at the periphery of the conflict, may also be ‘financially coerced’ into joining the protests and fuelling the fire of popular civilian revolt. It further concedes that two Qatari-funded power projects and other internationally owned companies have also terminated business functionings in light of the political events. The adverse consequences of these events on the Syrian economy will only continue to exacerbate if the conflict persists: according to the article, Syria had aspired to attract foreign aid and direct investment worth $50 billion in the following five years; these ambitions too shall have to be abandoned.
The conflict’s after-effects are not simply confined within the borders of Syria but also affect the Arab world at large. The most serious financial challenge that the Syrian unrest posits is to Turkey – inter-state trade between the two countries having increased three-fold in the previous several years and roughly amounting to a staggering $2.3 billion, is paramount to Turkey’s long term goal of qualifying as one of the 10 most economically prosperous nations of the world by the year 2023.
Of even greater political relevance are the far-reaching implications that the Syrian conflict is likely to deliver on Turkey’s bid for membership into the European Union as well as its “zero-problems with neighbour’s policy”. Turkey, in the recent past, has systematically and prudently engaged in bilateral economic/political ties with Syria. The two have remained locked in close eco-political ties since 2009, having abolished need for visas for their respective citizenries, organising joint-cabinet and political meetings, engaging in non-offensive military training exercises, etc. However, in lieu of recent political events that have unfolded in the midst of the inherently tumultuous Arab spring, Turkey’s foreign policy with respect to its neighbours now stands riddled with deep seated complications, as the Syrian conflict gains momentum and a deeply concerned Turkish leadership assesses these disconcerting events from the sidelines.
Hence, it is not simply the Turkish economic policy towards Syria that persists to attract global speculation and distress, Turkey’s foreign policy towards its chaos-stricken neighbour also remains a key concern for political and foreign policy experts. Interestingly, it is not simply Turkey that faces a latent political threat via the Syrian conflict, but many of Syria’s other neighbouring states are also acutely enmeshed into a geopolitical and economic broil with respect to the accelerating conflict
Reverberations within Syria similarly challenge political stability and economic prosperity in Jordan and Iraq also. Whilst Jordan faces the risk (like its Turkish and Lebanese counterparts) of an influx of Syrian refugees, Iraq deals with a trickier predicament. The effects of the conflict on the country’s post-war, essentially ‘infant’ economy is only a tiny faction of the damages that the barely “stable” nation state is exposed to. The long, common border and similar ethnic and sectarian strains, conflict may also potentially infiltrate across the Syrian-Iraq border.
The deep-seated nuances of this conflict that have overarching financial and economic spill-over effects need to be duly considered and evaluated in order to comprehend the gravity of the situation.

The writer is a freelance journalist specialising in the Middle East