Headed for an irreparable wreck
The recent clashes between the government and Islamists have reinforced fears concerning Pakistan’s fragile stability which appears to have entered a new phase of uncertainty where mobs and radical groups armed with ideological narratives can shut down the state in a matter of seconds. Pakistan is slowly sinking under its own weight with a number of domestic realities concerning rapidly changing political, social and security issues apparently taking a toll on the state’s capacity to manage emerging conflicts and challenges.
The state is fast losing its capacity to govern. While it’s debatable whether the recent clashes were managed or maneuvered by some elements of the state, it’s undeniable that the state has lost control of over some sections of its carefully cultivated horde of Islamic groups in the country.
For more than three decades, the state had a policy of hybridising and patronising different Islamist sects, offering them legitimacy through narratives which the state created through its own domestic working and aligning them with the country’s security and foreign policy agendas. Some groups had sectarian agendas while others were mushroomed and groomed to do the state’s bidding.
During the course of the last three decades, such elements have grown to an extent that they now have their own narrative of what the state’s inner workings should look like and what the state’s outer space should be concerned with. There was a time when scripts were handed to such groups under the pretext of carrying out so-called sacred missions to undermine political or organizational rivals in the country. Now, however, they own and practice narratives and spaces offered by the state’s myopic policies.
Pakistan’s history shows that non-civilian institutes, such as the military establishment or any other technocratic setups cannot run Pakistan effectively but at the same time they are unwilling to entrust civilians completely with the job.
So far, while it’s unclear whether Islamists can win a free election at the national level, they have clearly acquired the street power needed to threaten any elected government or the state. In fact, they are clearly in a position to bypass any of the state’s constitutional structures by calling into action a handful of angry and outraged mobs motivated by narratives that were controlled by the state.
Historically Pakistan’s politics have been dominated by ethnic, linguistic and economic issues, not by religion. The power of religious parties derived from state patronage. While the abovementioned issues still continue to rile the country – Punjab’s domination in strategic decision making bodies have alienated many on ethnic and linguistic lines – religion mixed with such issues can become a dangerous force that can accelerate the country’s implosion.
70 years into the partition and the country has not been able to decide who will govern the country. “Pakistan remains dominated by a secular establishment, presiding over the slow decay of the state and the idea of Pakistan. Formed in the 1950s in the Ayub Khan era, the establishment – an oligarchy consisting of fewer than 1000 military, political, bureaucratic, business, and media elites – can perpetuate itself but seems unable to take the steps required to transform Pakistan into a modern state,” argues Stephen Cohen in his latest book, The South Asia Papers.
Will the country be governed by an elected government with absolute control over all strategic issues of the state? Moreover, Pakistan’s history shows that non-civilian institutes, such as the military establishment or any other technocratic setups cannot run Pakistan effectively but at the same time they are unwilling to entrust civilians completely with the job. On the other hand, the question also remains: does the civilian elite which remains embroiled in power games and clearly doesn’t have a strategic vision for the state, have the capacity to govern?
Among other things, the Faizabad incident shows the military establishment’s impatience when civilians create situations that might have implications at the national level. The incident clearly indicates that when faced with a situation that can undermine the country’ stability – particularly domestic schism – the military is willing to intervene on its own and above and beyond any constitutional and theoretical realms. This not only overwhelms the role of other institutions in the country but also offers a gloomy impression that Pakistan remains ungovernable when civilians and institutions constrained by constitutional roles are in the driving seat. That’s where the argument of “Guardians of Pakistan ideological and other frontiers” emerges and keeps a check even on constitutional checks that are supposed to be followed not questioned.
Apparently, only Islamist groups hold a clear vision of the country’s future and that future doesn’t respect or accept religious, social or cultural diversity. Rather, it’s a vision which clearly overrules and undermines any semblance of a democratic state where one or multiple radical groups will compete in a race of implementing a distorted and intolerant vision of religion with force and violence; hence, accelerating the state’s ruin.
Pakistan has lost many of its friends and those that remain cannot be expected to encourage democratic solutions to Pakistan’s problems. China a week ago stopped funding for three major infrastructure projects under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on charges of massive graft and corruption from the Pakistani side. “As CPEC grows, its implementation becomes more complex and unwieldy given the small number of people involved in drafting the Pakistani position in the talks,” notes Dawn’s editorial. Saudi Arabia’s new leadership is not likely to shower Pakistan with free dollars unless the country is willing to do the former’s bidding in security and political realms that can directly put Pakistan on confrontation mode with its regional neighbors, particularly Iran.
Pakistan’s youth that remains its biggest asset should be offered space and opportunities through good quality education and vibrant work spaces to trigger the country’s next phase of growth and development. However, for that, the country needs a radical reversal of policies that are afoot now to ensure its survival and gradual revival as an economic, cultural and political power.
As of now, Pakistan’s train is headed for an irreparable wreck.
