Tillerson’s visit to Pakistan

US Secretary of State Tillerson is planning his maiden visit to Pakistan aimed to discuss joint efforts against terrorism and expanding economic ties between the two countries. He will also be visiting Saudi Arabia, India Geneva and Qatar.

Let’s take a look first at the backdrop of the proposed visit:

The ousted Prime minister has been indicted in three graft cases by the National Accountability Court. In one of these, over allegation involving his family’s ownership of expensive London property, his daughter Maryam Nawaz and son-in-law Capt. Safdar have been indicted too.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has been indicted in assets reference case. National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Chairman Justice (r) Javed Iqbal has ordered to freeze all assets and properties of the Finance Minister. The accused will probably be skipping the 16th Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Ministerial Conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan as per reports. Nonetheless, not resigning from his position.

Concerned Parliamentarians met to discuss a clear direction of the party. Punjab minister Sarwar met with over two dozen MPAs mainly hailing from Southern Punjab. Discussion revolved around replacing Nawaz Sharif with Shahbaz Sharif for the position of party president or forming a forward block to negotiate with the Sharifs.

On the US side, US Am­bassador to the UN Nikki Haley recently made a statement; ‘India can help the United States in keeping an eye on Pakistan, as Washington cannot tolerate any government that shelters terrorists.’ This is in no uncertain terms labeling Pakistan as a terrorist supporting country.

Ending August 2017, U.S and India signed a defense pact with a direct influence on both China and Pakistan. The LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) will allow both parties to the agreement to make use of the other’s military facilities to check China’s growth in Asia and fight together against terrorists. (Now re-read Nikki Haley’s statement again) Let us also not forget that China is a key player in CPEC.

Interestingly, the Taliban woke up as from deep slumber, 43 soldiers have been killed and nine wounded in a Taliban attack on an army camp in the southern province of Kandahar in October 2017. A brazen attack. This was followed by a suicide bomber killed at least 15 Afghan cadets as they were leaving a military training center in Kabul on 21^st October.

It seems that a paradigm shift has taken place in this region. Tillerson’s visit in this backdrop is extremely important when Pakistan’s ruling party fights for its survival. Political and Security analyst Brig Imran Malik ® states, “US has realized the changed strategic realities in South Asia and has made a paradigm shift in its approach. It will likely have two prongs, Indo-Pak and Pak-Afghan.  The US now wants to engage all three in a regional approach to resolve Indo-Pak and Pak-Afghan issues in accordance with its new South Asia policy which still remains by and large India-centric. It wants the Indo-Pak borders to be pacified and their issues start moving towards resolution. Unless this happens at a reasonable and perceptible level India will remain pegged to the subcontinent and thus unavailable to pursue US interests vis a vis China. Remember 80-90% of Indian military is either deployed or poised against Pakistan. So good ties between the two will allow India to play a meaningful role at the regional/extra regional kevels in support of US interests. On the Pak-Afghan border the US has struck and knocked out OKK! Now they will ask for a pay back in the shape of action against TTA/HN. Pakistan must move with extreme care henceforth and must keep in mind the timings. To my mind the timings of these activities will be crucial vis a vis Sino-Pak relations and the CPEC.”

Pakistan has fundamentally had a flawed foreign policy based too much on her geography to the exclusion of other variables involved. Pakistan’s narrative has failed to connect with the U.S policy makers. Understanding the American thought line process needs to be analyzed and a narrative developed.

However, in line with the new love translating into practical steps between U.S and India, this does not seem likely immediately. Tillerson’s visit to Pakistan requires superb statesmanship from Pakistan. Though peace in Afghanistan will not be possible to achieve without peace in Afghanistan, Trump and his advisors seem to think otherwise hence awarding greater space to India in Afghanistan thereby upping the hostilities between both.

Acting the under-dog in partnership with U.S, Pakistan has projected the image of the weaker ‘ally’ much like the tea-boy in local tea stalls- whereas the crescendo of ‘do more’ mantra by U.S has peaked in oblivion to Pakistan’s just security concerns.

Tillerson visit will discuss in all probability the positive aspects of the bilateral relationship and how both can work together at different levels and in all certainity; will focus on implementing Trump’s South Asia strategy. As stated by Mattis, “the administration’s stated willingness to work with Pakistan “one more time,” putting Pakistan ‘on notice’ per se.

What will be interesting to see is how the Pakistan’s foreign office handles this one.

One is reminded of Robert Kagan, (The World America Made) “Americans, in foreign policy, are torn to the point of schizophrenia. They are reluctant, than aggressive; asleep at the switch, then quick on the trigger; indifferent, then obsessed, then indifferent again. They act out of a sense of responsibility and then resent and fear the burden of responsibility they have taken on themselves. Their effect on the world, not surprisingly, is often the opposite of what they intend. Americans say they want stability in the international system, but they are often the greatest disrupters of stability. They extol the virtues of international laws and institutions but then violate and ignore them with barley a second thought. They are revolutionary power but think they are a status quo power. They want to be left alone but can’t seem to leave anyone else alone.”