The China syndrome

Completion of sixty years of diplomatic relations with China was a befitting occasion to recall the ties in a historical context. Of course, traditional friendship between the two neighbours has withstood the test of times.

As the late Chinese premier and architect of Sino-Pak amity Zhou Enlai put it, “Our friendship is higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the ocean.” However by sheer dint of circumstances, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s pre-scheduled visit suddenly became highly significant, even in the eyes of Islamabad’s detractors.

It is being perceived in Washington that the China connection is being renewed with a new vigour. Although both China ad Pakistan are at pains to emphasise that the visit was planned much before the US Navy SEALs unilaterally attacked Osama bin Laden’s compound and took him out.

Gilani claims the US has assured Pakistan that Osama-style solo operations will not be repeated and if at all there is need to conduct an attack inside Pakistan to nab a high profile target, it will be a joint US-Pakistan initiative. Judging by the belligerent mood in Washingt post-Osama and the trust deficit emanating from Capitol Hill, no one in Pakistan believes such hollow US commitments made behind closed doors.

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has assured Gilani that China’s support for its “all-weather partner” has stood the test of times. The Pakistani prime minister while addressing students of Peking University emphasised that the friendship between the two countries was “stronger than steel and sweeter than sugar”.

To celebrate the 60th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Pakistan, the Embassy of Pakistan and Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries hosted a grand dinner and a musical evening. Prime Minister Gilani and Jia Qingling, Chairman Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) made effusive speeches. The importance China attaches to Pakistan can be judged from the fact that such a top-level party functionary is rarely seen attending such occasions.

Apart from the usual assurances by China to enhance trade and economic ties, the real progress was achieved in the field of defence. Pakistan’s antiquated Air Force is practically only left with the US supplied F16 aircraft and the F17 Chinese aircraft being manufactured at Kamra. The rest of the PAF fleet is obsolete. China has assured not only to fast track the manufacture of second tranche of 50 F17s but to finance it as well.

The bonhomie notwithstanding the strategic partnership between the two countries was emphasised in virtually all the speeches. But the essence of the visit was the one-on-one meeting between the two premiers without aides.

It is obvious that Islamabad has full diplomatic support from its traditional friend in the face of US onslaught. The Chinese have conveyed to Washington during their recently concluded strategic dialogue their concerns regarding pressurising Pakistan and appended complications of violating its territorial sovereignty. They briefed Prime Minister Gilani about the US administration’s reaction, which was termed as receptive by the Chinese.

Whatever the nature of the Chinese support for Pakistan, is it going to be enough for Islamabad to escape Washington’s nutcracker? An even more important question is whether it has the political will to do so? More importantly, whether today’s China can be the same bulwark against Indian pressure like in 1965 and against the Soviet Union later.

Pakistan might be the same or much worse in many aspects but a lot of water has flown in the Yangtze River since then. Not only has China become the fastest growing economic power in the world, its policies are no longer governed by ideology but hardnosed economic interests and pragmatism.

I visited China in June 1976 with Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Premier Zhou Enlai had died the same year in January and Mao was dying. In fact, Mr Bhutto was the last head of government to be given an audience by Chairman Mao who was suffering from Parkinson’s disease. Bhutto was whisked away from an opera to meet the ailing leader.

The very next day of the meeting, Mr Bhutto was asked at a press conference held before his departure for Islamabad whether Mao was dying. In his usual flamboyant style he replied, “At his age, he is not exactly a tiger”.

These were turbulent times. Riots at the Tiananmen Square to protest against the manner in which Zhou Enlai had been treated in his last days had already taken place. Disgust with the ‘Gang of Four’ and the Cultural Revolution amongst the ordinary Chinese was obvious.

After Mao who died in December 1976, things started rapidly changing with Deng Xiaoping taking charge by 1978. The ‘paramount leader’ although never held any office or leadership of the Party. China’s GNP before the end of 80s effectively doubled under him and the goal of quadrupling the GNP by the end of the century was achieved ahead of schedule in 1995.

Today’s China, which I have visited occasionally since 1976, is a far cry from Mao’s China. Empty boulevards, grey buildings and Mao suits for all rural and urban men and women have been replaced with a bustling double digit growth economy, rural affluence and all the appended signs of capitalism. Mao’s photographs are rarely seen except on the currency notes. The role of ideology in economic decision-making has been reduced to being non-existent.

This does not mean the Chinese do not remember how Pakistan opened up China for the West by arranging a secret meeting between the then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and the Chinese leadership. Islamabad was the first non-communist country to open an air route to China, thus giving it access to western capitals.

Notwithstanding which government was in power, Islamabad has consistently supported one China policy and its stance on Tibet. Reciprocally, it has received China’s diplomatic support on Kashmir. Pakistan is eternally indebted to China for providing it with nuclear technology in the form of reactors and missile technology despite Washington’s obvious displeasure.

But now times have changed. China wants Pakistan to settle its disputes with India, its biggest trading partner in South Asia peacefully. It supports Pakistan’s stance on the war on terror and appreciates the fact that more than 30,000 army and police personnel have lost their lives in this war. But at the same time it is wary of activities of Islamic fundamentalists operating in provinces bordering Pakistan.

It is obvious in the end analysis that Pakistan will have to change from within like China has. Unless it abandons old habits soon and refuses to change with the times, it is doomed to further sink in the morass. Unless it is willing to change itself, the US, China or anyone else cannot be of any help!

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.