Defence analysts believe that the killing of Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad would put more pressure on Pakistan to try to locate other Al Qaeda members hiding in the country. Defence Analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi said the location of Osama before he was killed in the US operation might become a permanent source of “pain” for Pakistan. “There will be pressure on Pakistan to locate more Al Qaeda men in Pakistan,” he added.
He was of the view that the overall impact of the incident would be positive if “the Al Qaeda did not retaliate to the death of its top leader”. Askari said the killing of Osama would give a moral boost to those fighting terrorism, but extremists would remain very much there. “I don’t think Osama’s killing will have too great an impact on the anti-terrorism campaign worldwide and in Afghanistan.” Askari said the US had shared its plan with Pakistani authorities prior to the action.
Lt Gen (r) Hameed Gul said after Osama’s killing, the US would increase pressure on Pakistan vis-à-vis its nuclear capability and try to declare Pakistan Army a rogue organisation. “They (US) would try to link the whereabouts of Osama with Pakistan’s nuclear programme,” he said. Defence Analyst Ayesha Siddiqa believed that there was an element of cooperation by the Pakistani forces in the whole episode. “Maybe the US had some human intelligence and later it asked Pakistan to cooperate at a certain level,” she said.
She said history proved that whenever there was tension in Pak-US relations, the Pakistani authorities handed over Al Qaeda militants to the US. She said it was almost impossible that the Pakistani authorities were not in knowledge of the operation and if it were so, it is an issue of security alert rather than sovereignty.
Brigadier (r) Asad Munir, ISI’s former top official, said the operation was most probably carried out from Ghazi base. “Such an operation could not be carried out by the Americans themselves … it was coordinated with Pakistani forces,” he believed. He said claims that Osama was in Abbottabad for years seemed untrue, as he was constantly on the move. Munir said Osama’s death would certainly weaken Al Qaeda for sometime. “I don’t think Ayman Zawehiri has that much stature as was enjoyed by Bin Laden and there is a possibility that Al Qaeda could split into groups,” he added.
