If the government doesn’t act, the army will
Now they are trying to establish their network in the Afghan province of Kunnar, which borders Pakistan. They have been planning attacks from there and the recent surge in terrorist attacks has been launched from the same Afghan province
The new surge in violence has not just raised heart rates, but also eyebrows, across Punjab. If anything was clear even as the bodies were being counted and wounded shifted to hospitals, it was that time had finally come for the Punjab Operation. No longer would khadim-e-aala be able to dribble this one around.
And indeed it has come. So has Radd-ul-Fasaad, which is even bigger news, of course. But hasn’t much of what is being said in the wake of the new operation already been said, way back then, in the wake of the first operation? Wasn’t NAP already in place; just crying for implementation? Is it that we did not see it then that we would need a whole new operation to implement NAP, or is there more to these new initiatiaves?
To make sense of this new wave of terrorism and counter-terrorism, DNA talked exclusively to senior security analyst Brig Mahmood Shah.
Question: Why do you think there has been a sudden surge in terrorist activity, especially since we believed the ‘terrorists’ back was broken’, etc?
Mahmood Shah: Yes, I agree that the terrorists back was broken during the Operation Zarb-e-Azb. The entire infrastructure of terrorists’, especially their outfits, was destroyed in North Waziristan and the terrorists of all hues and colours had either fled into Afghanistan or had been killed in the operation.
Now they are trying to establish their network in the Afghan province of Kunnar, which borders Pakistan. They have been planning attacks from there and the recent surge in terrorist attacks has been launched from the same Afghan province. Effective measures are being taken and the entire Pakistan-Afghan border is being sealed.
The government needs to install modern gadgets at the border posts and data collection should be made about those Pakistanis who cross into Afghanistan and then return. If any Pakistan is returning after a long period, he should be questioned and investigated whether he was involved in any sort of terrorist training or was receiving funds. The border management systems must be adequate and the SoPs must be followed strictly.
This new wave of terrorist attacks would come to an end soon as effective measures are being taken by the military establishment under the Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad.
Q: Di you believe this new wave of terrorist attacks is aimed at sabotaging the efforts to hold PSL Final Match in Lahore or the ECO (Economic Cooperation Organisation) Summit starting next week in Islamabad?
MS: Frankly, I believe it’s more of a coincidence. But you can never rule out any possibility really. The enemy’s designs revolve around destablising Pakistan and any move which could make Pakistan insecure place might be a part of the plan.
The recent election of a main culprit of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi to Punjab assembly and his later joining of a party which is an ally of the federal government is grave in nature. This looks to be an action by the government to vindicate terrorism
But such a wave of terrorism needs a lot of planning, coordination and funding. One needs to plan, train and prepare for months to mount such attacks across the border. So one needs to understand that if it was planned to attack the PSL or ECO, they would have information about these events months in advance.
You must have noticed that before this new wave of terrorism, there was peace for many months and not a single incident took place. It looks to be a plan to surprise the government. Perhaps the terrorists took advantage of the transition in the change of command in the military top brass.
Moreover, it seems that there was lack of coordination between the government departments while going public with announcements of big events like the PSL or the ECO summit.
In future, the government would need to take more effective actions to preempt any terrorist attack before such big announcements as happens in the modern world.
Q: Critics claim that inaction against proscribed outfits like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Ahl-e-Sunnat wal Jama’at and Lal Masjid would help the terrorists easily getting facilitators in Pakistan. How do you see such allegations?
MS: Action would be taken against all proscribed organisations and a strategy, I believe, is being worked out. Moreover, organisations like Lal Masjid can easily be isolated and the movement of activists from banned outfit can be monitored.
But normally it’s not happening and rather the terrorists are using common citizens as their facilitators. Just take the example of the Lahore attack masterminds who used a resident of Bajaur agency who received the suicide bomber from Torkhum border and escorted him to Lahore. The suicide jacket had been transported through a truck driver by bribing him with two lakh rupees. So they are luring common citizens through economic incentives and not out of their religious leanings.
The government needs to sensitise the public and also alleviate poverty which is actually being used as a terrorist tool to lure the innocent and unemployed youth.
Q: Do you feel this so called Operation Ghazi, announced by Jamaat ul Ahrar, is what it is made out to be? After all, it has been a decade since the Lal Masjid operation, and the Masjid has clearly distanced itself from JA.
MS: One needs to understand the modus operandi of these terrorist outfits. Jamaat ul Ahrar has only support of terrorists up to Mohmand Agency. Initially, it had recruiters from Bajaur Agency too but now they have disintegrated and dispersed. I don’t think that Operation Ghazi had any connection with Lal Masjid. I suppose the JuA is trying to seek support from likeminded people desperately and that was the reason they codenamed the operation after the Lal Masjid cleric.
Q: In your opinion, will Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad depart from the contours of Zarb-e-Azb, or does it simply imply more of the same but in a more coordinated manner?
MS: Radd-ul-Fasaad is different from Operation Zarb-e-Azb in concept and tactical approach too. Zarb-e-Azb was aimed at destroying all infrastructure and sanctuaries of terrorists from North Waziristan Agency. Then the army had sweeping operations in nearby agencies up to Khyber and Shawwal valleys and adjoining Pak-Afghan bordering areas.
Radd-ul-Fasaad has a county-wide scope and depth with urban centers a specific focus. This operation would have three pillars: Military action; intelligence gathering across country; and active and aggressive diplomacy to make Afghanistan move against terrorists using its soil against Pakistan.
Q: Why is there the stress, once again, on going after all kinds of terrorists? Does this imply that the last effort was not thorough enough?
MS: For the time being, let me say, we are only doing fire-fighting rather than taking a real war to the terrorists. We are just running around across Pakistan without a comprehensive strategy to wipeout terrorism. Rather, we need to have a through, deep thinking before launching the operation.
The recent rounding up of thousands of people from across the country is just typical police action aimed at creating a media hype just to satisfy the angry public at large after a flurry of terrorist attacks which have triggered a sense of anger and fury against the government. Those arrested would soon be released by the courts and things would be back to square-one if strategic decision-making is not improved.
Q: The Karachi Operation began with a stipulated time limit but latter dragged on and became not just open ended, of sorts, but also very politicised. Do you have similar fears about Punjab?
MS: The federal and Punjab governments would have to shun their previous policies if they really mean business and stern action needs to be taken against the terrorists. The recent election of a main culprit of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi to Punjab assembly and his later joining of a party which is an ally of the federal government is grave in nature. This looks to be an action by the government to vindicate terrorism. The military would have to take action if government fails to do it.
