Need for Pak-India détente

Both stand to benefit from better relations

With talks remaining suspended between Pakistan and India, differences are bound to multiply. The latest threat by India – that it would block the water flowing down the Indus Water System, thus turning Pakistan into a desert – has the potential to bring the two nuclear-armed states into a deadly conflict once again. The threat has raised concerns in the international community also. Indian claims about the so called surgical strike and the subsequent rise in cross border exchange of fire have further added to the prevailing tension.

There is a perception in Pakistan that the BJP government does not want to be seen as being soft towards Pakistan during the crucial elections in UP and Punjab and that once these are over there is a possibility of a thaw between the two countries. Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal told the VoA that Pakistan hopes to resume talks with India after state elections. The optimism is not unfounded. Neither country can afford a war. Pakistan’s economy suffered badly after every India-Pakistan war. The 1965 war took toll of a fast growing economy, led to a high unemployment rate and shortages that led to unrest and protest marches that brought down the Ayub regime. The country was divided as a result of the 1971 war which caused the fall of the military regime. The 1999 Kargil misadventure was followed by the overthrow of the PML-N government. New Delhi hopefully realises that the first casualty of an all-out war would be India’s fast growth rate at over 7 pc. While a hawkish Indian Interior Minister, Rajnath Singh, mocked Islamabad during an election rally in UP, he insisted that India had always wanted to establish peaceful relations with Pakistan.

Peace between the two countries can help realise the full economic potential of South Asia. It would put life into SAARC. With better understanding between the two neighbours, India can also join CPEC and use the road network for the expansion of its exports. To bring peace the two countries need to rein in the opponents of detente.