To the US, India and ISIS, all at once
The recent summit of China, Russia and Pakistan held in Moscow was the third round of trilateral consultations on regional issues after which a joint statement was issued to help bring peace and tranquility in volatile Afghanistan
Overturning the tide in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin looks determined to help settle the war in Afghanistan now. And this looks obvious as we are living in the Asian century where China is emerging as an economic giant closely followed by two military powers — Russia and India.
The security situation in Afghanistan remains precarious as the forces loyal to regime in Kabul have limited capability against the furious Afghan Taliban who have control over most of the rural areas of that country. While the Quadrilateral Dialogue involving Pakistan, China, Afghanistan and US could not work, it seems Islamabad has encouraged Russia to join in.
The recent summit of China, Russia and Pakistan held in Moscow was the third round of trilateral consultations on regional issues after which a joint statement was issued to help bring peace and tranquility in volatile Afghanistan.
“(The three countries) expressed particular concern about the rising activity in the country of extremist groups, including the Afghan branch of IS (Islamic State),” Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told reporters after the meeting on 27 December 2016.
Discussing Afghanistan, the meeting agreed upon a “flexible approach” to remove certain (Taliban) figures from the United Nations sanctions list as part of efforts to foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement.
During the talks, the three states underscored their concern about the rising activity in the country (Afghanistan) of extremist groups, including the Afghan branch of the IS. Intriguingly, it seems Pakistan has been successful in convincing both China and Russia to back Afghan Taliban – a force Russia has always blamed for unrest in Afghanistan.
India, however, looks perturbed over the growing proximity between two rival countries, Pakistan and Russia. Perhaps, Indian think-tanks have failed to understand the convergence of interest of the two estranged neighbours. Indians have been blaming this shift on the so-called Islamophiles in the Russian administration, claiming that pro-Islam Russian diplomats were “pushing Moscow towards Islamabad” overlooking the fact that Indophiles had always dictated the Russian agenda in favour of New Delhi in the South Asia region.
Perhaps the real cause for concern for New Delhi is how the extremist regime under hard-line Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has affected the decision-making process — especially the way India has fallen in the lap of the United States of America, betraying its decades-old ally, Russia.
A report in Russia and India Report (RIR) quoted senior Indian government officials as saying they were “uncomfortable” with some of Russia’s recent postures and overtures to Islamabad
Moreover, India’s ‘isolate Pakistan’ plan was also ill-conceived as Indian strategists forgot to note that the geostrategic location of Pakistan makes it impossible for any regional player to ignore it.
What Indians need to understand is the fact that once India joined the “US pivot to Asia” — a vicious plan to contain fast emerging Beijing and marginalise Moscow — Russia was left with no choice but to realign its priorities per the fast changing landscape in Asia which has taken center-stage after the rise of China as the biggest economic power of the world.
While the US is going to be ruled by Donald Trump, one of the most controversial Republican presidents the US has ever had, China and Russia are fast converging over regional and global issues.
In a bid to understand the developing maze in Asia, I decided to reach out to top scholars, think-tanks and strategists in South Asia to help understand the geographic puzzle.
Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Chairman of Pakistan-China Institute, who is also an authority on the regional issues, believes it is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pro-American tilt that has influenced Russian policy shift on regional issues.
“Especially, Modi’s 31 August accord, giving the US military access to its bases, has led to this Russian policy-shift,” he opines.
Noted defence analyst Lt Gen (R) Amjad Shoaib says that Pakistan exploited its options wisely while India faulted when there was a need of caution.
“One needs to understand that in the post Zarb-e-Azb scenario, Pakistan has wisely ensured that terrorists would never be allowed to live, operate or train on its soil. We won’t allow any sort of terrorist activity, nor any terrorist infrastructure or communication. The world recognises our sincere efforts and this is why they seek our support,” he says.
Asked what made Russia work with Pakistan, Gen Amjad says convergence of interests and concerns has brought the two together.
“Russia and Iran have been partners in their fight against IS in Syria where they made strategic gains against the terrorist outfit. However, they could not eliminate major figureheads of the terrorist outfit who managed to flee from the war zone,” notes the former military strategist.
He says now both Russia and Iran fear the IS remnants may hit back to avenge their defeat in Syria. “There are around 200 million Muslims in Russia out of which around 5,000 reportedly fled to join the IS including some Chechen fighters. There are reports suggesting that many of those terrorists have manage to arrive Afghanistan. Moscow fears they may get back to Russia to the avenge Syrian war,” opined the former military general.
Gen Amjad said Iran had the same fears and this shared concern had compelled them to cooperate with forces which can neutralise the IS threat in Afghanistan.
“While Russia wants to eliminate the remnants of IS who might have found bases in Afghanistan, Afghan Taliban are the only option for them. And for Taliban, Russia needs to cooperate with Pakistan and Iran. So Moscow has reached out to Islamabad for help,” he added.
He said Pakistan also wanted to eliminate IS which has posed a threat to its peaceful development in recent years. Successive terrorist attacks in Pakistan suggest that Pakistan has to fight a long way against the jehadist elements having direct or indirect links with IS. China too wants stability in Afghanistan which got the three working together.
“The Chinese sincerely want to see Afghanistan stabilise as it has invested heavily in the war-torn country. Moreover, it also wants to neutralise the Chinese-origin terrorists linked to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) who have bases in Afghanistan along with IS,” he said.
Amjad says China is involved in the huge developmental process in Xinjiang province neighbouring Pakistan and it wants to eliminate the threat of militancy there. He asserted that Beijing also wants to curtail US influence in the region.
“But no one can bet on Afghanistan where almost all intelligence agencies are involved with various insurgent groups directly or indirectly. Russians, Indians, Iranians and Afghani spooks have contacts with various Taliban groups but they all know only Pakistan can deliver,” he maintained.
Gen Amjad said both Russia and China have worked with India in the past and they are fully aware of the negative role of India in destabilisation of Afghanistan. “Hence, both want to work with Pakistan to stabilise Afghanistan,” he added.
“You need to view the reports of cooperation between Taliban and Iran in the same context. The passport of Mullah Akhtar Mansour carried several trips to Iran and Dubai which suggested Taliban leaders travel extensively in the region. The passport suggested Mansour visited Dubai 13 times,” he said.
He said Iran and Russia were well aware of the fact that India was a part of the problem when it comes to the IS. Russians know the deep links between IS and Indian national security advisor Ajeet Doval, he says. “This is the reason Russia not only opposed the Indian bid at the recently held BRICS meeting aimed against Pakistan but also deflated Indians at the recently held Heart of Asia moot in Amritsar,” he added. He said Russians were well aware of the fact that only Pakistan and Taliban can ensure peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Asked how did he views the Indo-US policy on Afghanistan, Gen Amjad said both countries failed to deliver in Afghanistan. We would have to see the Afghan policy of Donald Trump now, he added.
What changed Russia’s position on the Taliban?
Perhaps the emergence of the dubious Islamic State (IS) has compelled Russia to change its mind about the Taliban. The meeting underlined that the Taliban was a necessary bulwark in the global fight against ISIS.
The Taliban obviously welcomed the move. “It is joyous to see that the regional countries have also understood that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a political and military force,” a statement issued by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the official name of Afghan Taliban, stated.
“The proposal forwarded in the Moscow tripartite of delisting members of the Islamic Emirate is a positive step forward in bringing peace and security to Afghanistan,” the statement added.
Following defeating the west-backed IS in Syria, Putin looks committed to lead a new bloc of Asian powers to confront the geo-strategic interests of US and its allies in the west.
The situation in Afghanistan is getting from bad to worse where repeated bids to launch peace negotiations between Dr Ashraf Ghani-led regime in Kabul with the Taliban have failed and a fierce new fighting season is expected to kick off with the coming spring. With President Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah at loggerheads, the Afghan government too is facing a serious political crisis.
Enter Russia, with support from Islamabad and huge economic assistance at hand from Beijing. Amidst its deteriorating ties with the west, Putin has started warming up to the Taliban. It is now arguing that Afghanistan could become a safe haven for IS, from where it would be able to pose a serious threat to the Russian hinterland.
China, too, remains worried about the impact of growing IS threat in its Xinjiang province. And both of them have found in Pakistan an important interlocutor who could perhaps manage the Taliban in a way that it would be a force against ISIS.
For Russia, the Taliban is a local irritant after giving up the idea of global jihad, whereas ISIS are the global jihadists. Zamir Kabulov, Vladimir Putin’s special representative for Afghanistan, has hinted at the change of heart in Moscow, suggesting that as far as fighting ISIS is concerned, “the Taliban interest objectively coincides with that of Russia.”
Delhi perturbed over emerging alliance
However, it seems that India is not comfortable with the recent gains made by Pakistan on the diplomatic front. Perhaps the regime in India sees these developments through its own prism of skepticism and intrigue and the increasing clout of Islamabad is a threat to its effort to “isolate Pakistan” on diplomatic, economic and strategic fronts.
Given the strategic partnership building between Washington and New Delhi, one can understand a concern in India presuming Russia is developing a new bloc to counter the US Pivot to Asia. The economic upsurge of China and the recent gains of Russia have led experts to believe that Russia and China are working on developing a new regional alliance to counter the Indo-US strategic alliance aimed at containing China and Russia. This idea is not so unfounded either.
There is a feeling among Indian strategists that once poles apart, Moscow and Islamabad are now developing an increasing friendship. But this is not the only concern Indians are gripped with. The pundits in India see a new alliance brewing in Asia region involving China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. While Turkey and Iran have not joined Russia, China and Pakistan, experts see them joining in perhaps in a bid to strike a balance against the India-US axis.
This concern compounded further after Pakistan and Russia held their first-ever foreign office consultations in Islamabad on December 14. A statement of Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement later that a wide range of regional issues and key areas of mutual interest including economic cooperation and connectivity were discussed.
“The two sides exchanged views on important global and regional developments too,” the statement said, hinting at a regional alliance shaping up. Soon after the first ever joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan – which New Delhi tags as an attempt to block Indian efforts to “isolate” Islamabad politically, levels of concern were already high among India’s strategic community.
Though Moscow has officially denied it had shown any interest in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Alexey Dedov, the Russian Ambassador to Pakistan, was cited by the Times of India as not only “declaring strong support for the China-funded project” but also announcing Russia’s intention to link the Eurasian Economic Union project with the CPEC.
Though there is no official opposition from New Delhi to the growing ties between Russia and Pakistan, Indian media has been vocal in showing its concerns – strongly rejected by Moscow.
A report in Russia and India Report (RIR) quoted senior Indian government officials as saying they were “uncomfortable” with some of Russia’s recent postures and overtures to Islamabad.
However, Zamir Kabulov, the Russian President’s Special Envoy on Afghanistan, countered Indian concerns, terming them “strange.”
Commenting on Indian concerns about rising Russian cooperation with Pakistan, Kabulov said, “We cannot understand this jealousy because India has very close cooperation with America in the field that we used to be the almost only trusted partner (defence). Have you heard any complaints from Moscow about that?” Kabulov said in response to a question.
He also shrugged away Indian concerns on Russia-China cooperation.
“We are living in a multi-polar world. There is no threat to India-Russia relations. India is and will remain a major partner of the Russian Federation, along with China and other states,” Kabulov said.
Dr BR Deepak, a professor in Jawaharlal Nehru University, views the growing Indo-US partnership as a major cause for the Russian tilt towards Pakistan.
Talking to this scribe, Deepak said as a matter of fact, Russia was an ‘all weather’ ally of yesteryears’ India.
“But by initiating military cooperation with Pakistan, including its willingness to participate in CPEC, Russia has demonstrated that there are visible fissures in its relationship with India,” commented Deepak.
“I believe these could be attributed to India gradually moving closer to the US, especially becoming the largest importer of the US weapons systems, trouncing Russia.”
Deepak also sees China as a major factor in growing Russian relations with Pakistan.
“China has also factored in this relationship. China has been aggressively promoting CPEC and other economic corridors along the Belt and Road routes, many of which have a bearing on the Russian economy. Be it China-Mongolia-Russia or China-Central Asia or Eurasia Land Bridge, etc,” he said.
Deepak says irrespective of the fact that Russia remains wary of Chinese moves in its backyard, given the economic asymmetry and western sanctions, Russian partnership with China, I will call it a marriage of convenience.
“There may be a shift in this paradigm with Donald Trump now taking over the reins in Washington. But given the uncertainties and fluidity in international affairs, especially the transformation China’s rise has brought to the global political architecture, we still need to wait until the dust settles down over US horizon,” Deepak concluded.
